ArticleThorax2026
Understanding risk of poor outcomes in adults hospitalised with respiratory syncytial virus infection: evidence from a multicentre UK cohort.
Article in Thorax, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Who cites it
1 citing paper in PubMed.
- Clinical Burden of Disease and Demographics in Older Adults Hospitalized with RSV Infection in England: A Retrospective Cohort Study.Infectious diseases and therapy · 2026Article
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Authors and funding
34 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundRespiratory syncytial virus (RSV) causes substantial winter pressure on adult services. In the UK, RSV vaccination currently targets adults aged ≥75 years and care home residents; it remains uncertain whether this age criterion alone meaningfully discriminates risk of poor outcome among adults hospitalised with RSV.
methodsWe pooled three UK hospital cohorts (one prospective, two retrospective) of adults admitted with acute respiratory infection (ARI) and PCR-confirmed RSV. The primary outcome was intensive care unit/high dependency unit (ICU/HDU) admission or all-cause mortality within 60 days. Prespecified predictors (age, sex and comorbidities) entered a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) penalised logistic regression; selected variables were refitted using standard logistic regression. Discrimination, calibration and decision-analytic performance were assessed using 1000-bootstrap internal validation and decision-curve analysis.
resultsAmong 334 adults, 37 (11.1%) experienced the primary outcome. An age-only rule mirroring current UK vaccine age-eligibility (≥75 years) demonstrated only modest discrimination (optimism-adjusted area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) 0.58, 95% CI 0.48 to 0.65) and a compressed distribution of predicted risks. A four-predictor model-including age, COPD, active/previous cancer and dementia-achieved higher discrimination AUC (0.77 (0.69 to 0.85)), a wider spread of predicted risks and the greatest net benefit across clinically plausible escalation thresholds (5-20%).
conclusionsIn adults hospitalised with RSV-associated ARI, simple age-based heuristics-including the UK ≥75-year threshold-showed only modest ability to discriminate risk of ICU/HDU admission/60-day mortality once hospitalised. Comorbidity-inclusive approaches may provide more informative hospital-level risk stratification and warrant evaluation in future RSV vaccine-effectiveness and outcome studies. Any application requires external validation, more systematic RSV testing and comparison with physiology-based scores in larger, vaccinated cohorts.
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