ArticlePLoS medicine2026
Estimating the global burden of viable Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection: A mathematical modelling study.
Article in PLoS medicine, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers.
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Who cites it
6 citing papers in PubMed.
- Projected Effects of Changing Global Tuberculosis Epidemiology on Mycobacterium tuberculosis Immunoreactivity Prevalence, 2024-2050.Emerging infectious diseases · 2026Article
- The role of long non-coding RNA HCP5 in ulcerative cutaneous tuberculosis therapy introduction.Frontiers in cellular and infection microbiology · 2026Article
- Dynamical behavior analysis of 2-control strategies on tuberculosis model.PLOS global public health · 2026Article
- Risk Factors Associated With Tuberculosis Infection Among Household Contacts of Patients With Microbiologically Confirmed Pulmonary Tuberculosis in 3 High Tuberculosis Burden Countries.The Journal of infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Experimental dissection of tuberculosis protective immunity: a human perspective.Frontiers in cellular and infection microbiology · 2025Review
- The impact of latent tuberculosis screening programmes for migrant populations in high income, low burden countries.PloS one · 2025Article
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6 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundEstimating the proportion of individuals currently infected with Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) is key for informing global health policies. Although a substantial portion of the global population exhibit tuberculous immunoreactivity, not all have a viable Mtb infection. Moreover, individuals with recent infections are at a higher risk of developing tuberculosis (TB). Here, we present estimates of the global burden of viable Mtb infection, using new insights into the natural history of TB. METHODS AND
findingsWe constructed country-specific trends in annual risk of infection considering estimates of TB burden, immunoreactivity reversion, and age-specific mixing. We applied these trends to a deterministic mathematical model incorporating reinfection and self-clearance to estimate recent (within 2 years) and total viable Mtb infections. Empirical data on self-clearance are limited, so rates were informed by modelling estimates. In 2022, we estimated that 133.7 million people (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 104.0, 171.1) had a recent Mtb infection, representing 1.7% (95% UI: 1.3, 2.2) of the global population. In total, 288.9 million people (95% UI: 242.2, 342.7)-or 3.7% (95% UI: 3.1, 4.3) globally-were estimated to harbour a viable Mtb infection. Among those recently infected, 12.0% (95% UI: 11.4, 12.7) were children under 15 years of age. Most recent infections were found in the World Health Organization regions of South-East Asia (49.0%; 95% UI: 37.2, 62.4), the Western Pacific (19.7%; 95% UI: 12.6, 30.5), and Africa (17.9%; 95% UI: 12.9, 24.1). India, Indonesia, and China had the highest burden, with 39.1 million (95% UI: 18.0, 73.6), 12.0 million (95% UI: 5.8, 22.9), and 11.2 million (95% UI: 5.0, 25.5) people, respectively, recently infected with Mtb. Sensitivity analyses of varying self-clearance scenarios showed significant changes in global estimates of viable Mtb infection, particularly in total burden, with lower self-clearance rates. Overall uncertainty in the estimates was considerable, reflecting limitations in the underlying data informing key model parameters.
conclusionsOur findings offer global burden estimates of viable Mtb infection and reveal a sizable population recently infected with Mtb and at high risk of progression to disease. New diagnostic tools that can detect individuals with viable Mtb-particularly those who would benefit from TB preventive therapy-are urgently needed.
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