Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41634598›Full record

ArticleBMC infectious diseases2026

The impact of COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical interventions on notifiable infectious diseases in Poland: a comprehensive analysis from 2014-2022.

Abdulla Zahi Hourani, Abdelrahman Abdelsalam, Arman David Sürmeli

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in BMC infectious diseases, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
2citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

2 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

3 authors.

Abdulla Zahi HouraniDepartment and Clinic of Nephrology, Dialysis and Internal Medicine, Medical University of Warsaw, Żwirki i Wigury 61, Warsaw, 02-091, Poland.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9619-381X
Abdelrahman AbdelsalamUniversity Hospital Limerick, Limerick, V94 T9PX, Ireland.ORCID http://orcid.org/0009-0006-7493-4537
Arman David SürmeliFaculty of Medicine, Medical University of Warsaw, Żwirki i Wigury 61, Warsaw, 02-091, Poland. armansuermeli@gmail.com.ORCID http://orcid.org/0009-0006-4934-4391

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

introductionThe COVID-19 pandemic prompted widespread non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) like lockdowns and masking in Poland (2020–2022), significantly altering pathogen circulation. This created a unique opportunity to study the extended effects of these measures on other communicable diseases, moving beyond short-term observations.

aimThis study aimed to assess how the pandemic and associated NPIs affected the incidence of 17 notifiable infectious diseases in Poland over an extended period, from January 2014 to December 2022.

methodsUsing national surveillance data aggregated monthly, we compared incidence during pandemic years (2020–2022) against pre-pandemic (2014–2018) and baseline (2019) periods. Data were deseasonalized. A negative binomial generalized linear model calculated incidence rate ratios (IRRs) relative to 2019, controlling for confounders. Spearman correlation measured associations between disease incidence, COVID-19 cases, and nine NPIs.

resultsFrom 2020 to 2022, 13 of 17 diseases showed cumulative declines compared to 2014–2019, including whooping cough (peak reduction IRR 0.11 in 2021 vs. 2019), scarlet fever, chickenpox, and mumps. Invasive Streptococcus pneumoniae decreased initially but rebounded in 2022. Conversely, Clostridioides difficile incidence increased significantly (2021 IRR 1.84 vs. 2019). Norovirus, HIV, and syphilis surged later, coinciding with NPI relaxation. Higher NPI stringency generally correlated negatively with respiratory pathogens.

conclusionLong-term observation confirmed that widespread NPIs suppressed many communicable diseases, particularly respiratory infections, beyond SARS-CoV-2. The rebound of several infections upon NPI relaxation suggests potential shifts in population susceptibility. These findings can inform future public health strategies balancing disease control and societal needs, though further research on long-term dynamics is warranted. CLINICAL TRIAL NUMBER: Not applicable.

Indexed as

Communicable Disease ControlCommunicable DiseasesCOVID-19Disease NotificationHumansIncidencePolandQuarantineSARS-CoV-2COVID-19Infectious disease surveillanceNon-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs)Notifiable infectious diseasesPolandTime-series analysis

Identifiers

PMID41634598
PMCPMC12874760

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LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.