ArticlePloS one2026
Recovery-induced tipping in Stommel's kicked ocean box model.
Article in PloS one, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
Ocean circulation, a key driver of global climate, is subject to recurrent disturbances including freshwater input from glacial melt. Stommel's idealized two-box model predicts two distinct stable regimes of thermohaline ocean circulation and offers a conceptual framework in which to explore the effects of salinity perturbations. A study that superimposed discrete salinity kicks onto the flow of the otherwise continuous model revealed a counterintuitive phenomenon: extending the recovery period between salinity kicks caused a trajectory to tip into an alternative basin of attraction. Here we analyze the recovery-induced tipping phenomenon in Stommel's kicked model across a broader swath of disturbance parameters, finding that the phenomenon is robust across a significant set of kick sizes. Furthermore, bifurcation analysis of flow-kick fixed points reveals that recovery-induced tipping stems from an alternative attractor migrating across an original separatrix as flow times vary. This migration also occurs in a continuous analog of salinity perturbation. Although the recovery times associated with seasonal or decadal freshwater influxes far exceed those associated with recovery-induced tipping, the qualitative dynamics we uncover in Stommel's perturbed model alert us that similar phenomena may occur in other models and real-world systems.
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