Contextual conditions define maximum energy-use threshold in low-carbon controlled environment agriculture for agri-food transformation.

Controlled Environment Agriculture has the potential to achieve food security and lower carbon emissions in agri-food systems. However, contextual factors such as what is produced and how it is produced determine the feasibility of meeting these goals. Here we show how the use of a Maximum Energy-use Threshold, shaped by these contextual factors, can define, identify and enable low-carbon operations. Results support the potential of low-carbon controlled environment agriculture over international import when growing leafy greens in land-locked countries with low grid emission factors or when substituting air freight of short shelf-life produce. Prospective low-carbon energy scenarios helps but optimising energy use remains critical. As controlled environment agriculture allows intensive farming with a reduced land footprint, controlled environment agriculture of high energy use crops as a lower-carbon alternative can be supported when the potential for agricultural land substitution and restoration for environmental services is considered, along with other contextual condition.