ArticleChaos (Woodbury, N.Y.)2026
Identifying stochastic dynamics from non-sequential data (DyNoSeD).
Article in Chaos (Woodbury, N.Y.), 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
Inferring stochastic dynamics from data is central; yet, in many applications, only unordered, non-sequential measurements are available-often restricted to limited regions of state space-so standard time-series methods fail. We introduce DyNoSeD (Identifying Dynamics from Non-Sequential Data), a first-principles framework that identifies unknown dynamical parameters from such non-sequential data by minimizing Fokker-Planck residuals. We develop two complementary routes: a local route that handles region-restricted data via local score estimation, and a global route that fits dynamics from globally sampled data using a kernel Stein discrepancy without density- or score estimation. When the dynamics are affine-in-the-unknown-parameters (while remaining nonlinear-in-the-state), we prove necessary-and-sufficient conditions for the existence and uniqueness of the inferred parameter vector and derive a sensitivity analysis that identifies which parameters are tightly constrained by the data and which remain effectively free under over-parameterization. For general non-affine parameterizations, both routes define differentiable losses amenable to gradient-based optimization. As demonstrations, we recover (i) the three parameters of a stochastic Lorenz system from non-sequential observations (region-restricted data for the local route and full steady-state data for the global route) and (ii) a 3×7 interaction matrix of a nonlinear gene-regulatory network derived from a published B-cell differentiation model, using only unordered steady-state samples and applying the global route. Overall, DyNoSeD provides two first-principles routes for system identification from non-sequential data, grounded in the Fokker-Planck equation, that link data, density, and stochastic dynamics.
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