ArticleInfectious Disease Modelling2026
A coupled disease-misinformation model of measles transmission in the Canadian context.
Article in Infectious Disease Modelling, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
Infectious disease dynamics are increasingly shaped not only by biological processes but also by the spread of misinformation. This study presents a coupled disease-misinformation model, SMIRK, to evaluate the impact of misinformation on a recent measles outbreak in Canada. The novel model combines a standard SIR framework for measles transmission with an SIS-like KMK model for misinformation spread. Two misinformation recovery paradigms are explored: constant-rate recovery and recovery induced by contact with infected individuals. Parameters were estimated using least-squares fitting to epidemiological data from Health Canada and Public Health Ontario (December 2024 to March 2025). Model calibration suggests that misinformation rapidly reaches a stable equilibrium, effectively saturating the population regardless of recovery paradigm. Due to the rapid information homogenization of the population, measles is predicted to behave as a standard low-
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