ArticleGeoHealth2026
A Regionally Determined Climate-Informed West Nile Virus Forecast Technique.
Article in GeoHealth, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
2 citing papers in PubMed.
- Article
- Evaluating Associations Between Drought and West Nile Virus Epidemics: A Systematic Review.Microorganisms · 2025Review
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
West Nile virus (WNV) infection has caused over 30,000 human cases of the severe, neuroinvasive form of the disease (West Nile virus Neuroinvasive Disease; WNND) and nearly 3,000 deaths in the U.S. Despite known links to observable climate factors, no effective nationwide WNV or WNND forecast exists. We aimed to produce a skillful, nationwide WNND forecast built upon regionally varying relationships between climate factors and WNND. After examining the relationships between climate conditions and annual WNND caseload for 11 regions in the U.S., we incorporated the most salient climate factors-most commonly drought and temperature-into a regionally determined nationwide WNND statistical forecast model using a Bayesian regression framework. We retrospectively generated forecasts from 2005 to 2022 and compared forecast skill against various benchmarks, including a simple, historical case-driven model. Our regional, climate-informed WNND retrospective forecasts outperformed a benchmark model only informed by historical WNND case data across all regions, as well as in a nationally aggregated score (univariable: 18.8% [4.7%-27.7%], bivariable: 21.8% [7.0%-30.7%] improvement). The regional forecasts also outperformed an ensemble model generated from a recent WNV forecasting competition and a parallel, county-level, regional climate-informed forecast outperformed forecasts from the same competition. Importantly, our approach to WNND forecast development aggregated county-level data to broader regions to boost statistical signal and capture the regionally varying influences of climate conditions on annual WNND caseload. The advances here represent a potential path toward actionable broad-scale WNV forecasts.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.