Mapping and modelling land degradation vulnerability in a semi-arid region: a case study from Battalgazi District, Turkiye.

Background: Land degradation threatens and the provision of ecosystem services worldwide. Land degradation vulnerability (LDV) assessments still lack the necessary spatial detail and predictive accuracy, and the integration of multiple spectral indices with machine learning remains underexplored. This study addresses the critical importance of spatially mapping vulnerability to land degradation and develops a novel framework that combines advanced machine learning and uncertainty measurement with the STORIE Index Rating (SIR), a semi-quantitative method for assessing potential soil productivity. This framework aims to spatially predict the vulnerability of soils in the study area to land degradation with high accuracy. Methods: This study addresses this gap by introducing HyStoRSM, a novel framework that integrates land-survey-derived data, remote sensing, and machine learning. This study presents a case study of the HyStoRSM framework in the Battalgazi district (940.5 km Results: The optimized XGBoost regression model, with hyperparameters tuned using 5-fold cross-validation with Optuna-based hyperparameter optimization and validated on an independent 30% test dataset, achieved high prediction accuracy ( Conclusions: The HyStoRSM framework integrates multisource satellite data, land survey data, and advanced machine learning into a single, interpretable framework. This enables proactive, precise land degradation risk management, especially in semiarid regions where terrain and hydrologic controls drive erosion vulnerability.