Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41603560›Full record

ArticleJournal of bone and mineral research : the official journal of the American Society for Bone and Mineral Research2026

Fracture probability is predictive of fall-associated hospitalization: the Manitoba BMD Registry.

Fatima Zarzour, Eugene V McCloskey, Helena Johansson, Nicholas C Harvey, John A Kanis, William D Leslie

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In one paragraph

Article in Journal of bone and mineral research : the official journal of the American Society for Bone and Mineral Research, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

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0citing papers in PubMed
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1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

0 citing papers in PubMed.

No citing paper in PubMed yet.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

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5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Fatima ZarzourDepartment of Medicine, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, MB R2H 2A6, Canada.ORCID 0000-0001-8972-6745
Eugene V McCloskeyCentre for Metabolic Bone Diseases, University of Sheffield Medical School, Sheffield S10 2RX, United Kingdom.ORCID 0000-0003-0177-8140
Helena JohanssonSahlgrenska Osteoporosis Centre, Institute of Medicine, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg 405 30, Sweden.
Nicholas C HarveyMRC Lifecourse Epidemiology Centre, University of Southampton, Southampton SO16 6YD, United Kingdom.ORCID 0000-0002-8194-2512
John A KanisCentre for Metabolic Bone Diseases, University of Sheffield Medical School, Sheffield S10 2RX, United Kingdom.
William D LeslieDepartment of Medicine, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, MB R2H 2A6, Canada.ORCID 0000-0002-1056-1691

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The current version of FRAX does not consider prior falls as a primary input variable. Limited data suggest that greater FRAX-derived fracture probability is associated with incident falls at least in elderly men. Our aim was to examine the association of FRAX-derived fracture probability with the risk for subsequent fall-associated hospitalizations. We identified individuals aged 40 yr or older at the time of baseline DXA with FRAX-derived major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) probability assessed through the Manitoba BMD Program. We used linkage with population-based data to identify subsequent hospitalization that included a fall diagnosis code. Sensitivity analyses examined fall-associated hospitalizations unrelated to a concurrent fracture (diagnosed within 30 d). Cox regression was used to estimate HR for time to fall-associated hospitalization according to MOF probability without and with BMD (per SD increase and also for individual variables in the FRAX tool). The study comprised 88 684 individuals, mean age 64.6 yr, 89.5% female. During mean 8.6 yr observation (total 759 963 person-years), 9715 (11.0%) individuals experienced a fall-associated hospitalization; of these, 3363 (3.8%) were unrelated to concurrent fracture. Every SD increase in MOF fracture probability was strongly associated with fall-associated hospitalization (without BMD HR, 2.47; 95% CI, 2.41-2.52; with BMD HR, 2.48; 95% CI, 2.43-2.53). No significant interaction was seen between fracture probability and follow-up time (p = .516). Findings were similar when restricted to individuals with falls unrelated to concurrent fracture, when adjusted for previous fall-associated hospitalization (last 3 yr) or self-reported fall (last 12 mo), when restricted to individuals without previous falls, and for FRAX-derived hip fracture probability. All FRAX variables except for parental hip fracture showed a positive relationship with fall-associated hospitalization. In conclusion, FRAX-derived fracture probability is strongly associated with risk for future fall-associated hospitalization, including falls unrelated to concurrent fracture.

Indexed as

Accidental FallsBone DensityFractures, BoneHospitalizationOsteoporotic FracturesRegistriesAgedFemaleHumansMaleManitobaMiddle AgedProbabilityRisk Factorsbone mineral densityfallsfracture risk assessmentosteoporosisprediction algorithms

Identifiers

PMID41603560
PMCPMC13616109

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.