ArticleProceedings. Biological sciences2026
Interepidemic Rift Valley fever in East Africa: the recent risk landscape and projected impacts of global change.
Article in Proceedings. Biological sciences, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
2 citing papers in PubMed.
- Rift Valley Fever at Europe's Risk Frontier: Climate, Vectors, and One Health Preparedness.Veterinary sciences · 2026Review
- Interepidemic Rift Valley fever in East Africa: the recent risk landscape and projected impacts of global change.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2026Article
Corrections and comments
- Update of
Authors and funding
7 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a zoonotic disease that causes sporadic, multi-country epidemics. However, there is limited understanding of RVF virus circulation during interepidemic periods and the potential impacts of global change on interepidemic RVF. To address these knowledge gaps, we built a predictive model using recent interepidemic RVF outbreak data from Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda. We then projected interepidemic RVF risk for three future time periods (2021-2040, 2041-2060, 2061-2080) under three global change scenarios representing different trajectories for climate and human population distribution (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370). Our model identified interepidemic RVF risk hotspots in east Kenya, east Tanzania and southwest Uganda. Hydrology was a major driver of disease risk: hotspots emerged in association with lakes and rivers, and risk peaked during May-July following the long rains season (March-May). Projections under global change scenarios suggested that disease risk will generally decrease over time. Nevertheless, owing to expected human population growth, we estimate that > 90 million people in the study region will be exposed to interepidemic RVF by 2061-2080, which is nearly double the historical (1970-2000) estimate of approximately 49 million people. Mitigating the future health impacts of RVF will require increased disease surveillance, prevention and control effort in risk hotspots.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.