Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41591837›Full record

SynthesisAIDS (London, England)2026

HIV prevalence in transgender women and cisgender men who have sex with men in sub-Saharan Africa.

Oliver Stevens, Rebecca L Anderson, Keith Sabin, Sonia Arias Garcia, Elizabeth Fearon, Kingsley Manda, Wame Dikobe, Lloyd Mulenga, Neena M Philip, Mathieu Maheu-Giroux and 3 more

Abstract readMeta-Analysis
In one paragraph

Synthesis in AIDS (London, England), 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Trial
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

13 authors.

Oliver StevensMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Rebecca L AndersonMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Keith SabinData for Impact, The Joint United Nations Program on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS), Geneva, Switzerland.
Sonia Arias GarciaData for Impact, The Joint United Nations Program on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS), Geneva, Switzerland.
Elizabeth FearonUniversity College London, London, UK.
Kingsley MandaMalawi National Statistics Office, Zomba, Malawi.
Wame DikobeFHI360, Gaborone, Botswana.
Lloyd MulengaZambia Ministry of Health, Lusaka, Zambia.
Neena M PhilipICAP, Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health, New York, NY, USA.
Mathieu Maheu-GirouxDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Population and Global Health, McGill University, Montréal, Canada.
Jinkou ZhaoThe Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, Geneva, Switzerland.
Mary MahyData for Impact, The Joint United Nations Program on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS), Geneva, Switzerland.
Jeffrey W Imai-EatonMRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

introductionThe Global AIDS Strategy 2021-2026 calls for equitable access to HIV services for all populations. Transgender people have been marginalized and experience disproportionate risk of HIV infection in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and data to guide HIV programmes are severely limited. Surveillance data among cisgender men who have sex with men (cis-MSM) are comparatively abundant. We assessed whether HIV prevalence among cis-MSM was correlated with HIV prevalence among transgender women.

methodsData from key population surveys conducted in SSA between 2010 and 2022 were identified from existing databases and survey reports. Studies that collected HIV prevalence data among both transgender women and cis-MSM populations were analysed with random effect meta-analysis to estimate the ratio of HIV prevalence among cis-MSM:transgender women.

resultsTwenty-one studies were identified encompassing 8476 transgender women and 24 102 cis-MSM. Median HIV prevalence among transgender women was 23.5% [interquartile range (IQR) 11.5-39.8%] and 16.2% (IQR 8.1-26.8%) among cis-MSM. HIV prevalence among transgender women was 50% higher than in cis-MSM [prevalence ratio 1.48, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.25-1.76]. HIV prevalence among transgender women was highly correlated with year/province-matched HIV prevalence among cis-MSM ( R2  = 0.60), but poorly correlated with year/province-matched total population HIV prevalence ( R2  = 0.01).

conclusionTransgender women experience a significantly greater HIV burden than cis-MSM in SSA, underscoring the need for HIV services addressing the disproportionate vulnerability experienced by transgender women. Further bio-behavioural surveys focused on determinants of HIV infection, treatment uptake, and risk behaviours among transgender people, distinct from cis-MSM, will improve understanding of HIV risk and vulnerabilities.

Indexed as

HIV InfectionsHomosexuality, MaleTransgender PersonsAdultAfrica South of the SaharaFemaleHumansMalePrevalenceSub-Saharan African PeopleAfricaHIV-1homosexualitymalesexual and gender minoritiestransgender persons

Identifiers

PMID41591837
PMCPMC12955963

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.