ArticleInternational journal of epidemiology2026
Spatio-temporal trends in pleural mesothelioma mortality in Italy: a 40-year analysis by calendar period and birth cohort.
Article in International journal of epidemiology, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.
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2 citing papers in PubMed.
- Trends in malignant mesothelioma incidence in Spain, 1999-2023: a joinpoint and age-period-cohort analysis.Clinical & translational oncology : official publication of the Federation of Spanish Oncology Societies and of the National Cancer Institute of Mexico · 2026Article
- Projecting future mortality risk of pleural mesothelioma in Italy (2020-2034): Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis over 40 years of death registration.Frontiers in public health · 2025Article
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9 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundItaly, among the leading asbestos producers and users until the national ban in 1992, continues to register a high burden of asbestos-related diseases, mainly due to their long latency and delays in remediation. This study investigates the spatio-temporal evolution of pleural mesothelioma (PM) mortality over the past 40 years. MATERIALS AND
methodsMalignant pleural tumours and PM deaths (1980-2020) were extracted from the national death registry, adjusted for misclassification of pleural tumours, and analysed by region and birth cohort (1905-1984). The analyses by calendar period and cohort, stratified by sex assigned at birth, were followed by a space-cohort Bayesian Hierarchical Model with structured random effects for time (cohorts up to 1960-1969) and space (administrative regions).
resultsIn Italy, from 1980 to 2020, 35 134 people died from PM (24 380 males and 10 754 females). A mortality decrease was observed in males after 2010-14 and in females after 2000-4. Mortality steadily declined in both males and females across cohorts after 1935-44. The space-time analysis enabled the clear identification of the Italian regions most affected by PM.
conclusionItaly's trend mirrors those of other Western countries that have banned asbestos, with the highest risks for birth cohorts in working age before the ban. The results reveal distinct spatio-temporal patterns, with the northern regions exhibiting the highest rates. The Italian experience with asbestos-related diseases detection could help other countries to assess the impact of asbestos, raise awareness, and promote a global ban on asbestos.
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