Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41573230›Full record

ArticleSustainability science2026

A method to identify positive tipping points to accelerate low-carbon transitions and actions to trigger them.

Timothy M Lenton, Thomas W R Powell, Steven R Smith, Frank W Geels, Floor Alkemade, Martina Ayoub, Pete Barbrook-Johnson, Scarlett Benson, Fenna Blomsma, Chris A Boulton and 12 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Sustainability science, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
0citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

0 citing papers in PubMed.

No citing paper in PubMed yet.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

22 authors.

Timothy M LentonGlobal Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-6725-7498
Thomas W R PowellGlobal Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-5240-0351
Steven R SmithGlobal Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-5199-2906
Frank W GeelsManchester Institute of Innovation Research, The University of Manchester, Manchester, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-8778-4757
Floor AlkemadeEindhoven University of Technology, Eindhoven, Netherlands.ORCID 0000-0002-2231-1913
Martina AyoubEdinburgh University Business School, Edinburgh, UK.
Pete Barbrook-JohnsonInstitute for New Economic Thinking, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-7757-9132
Scarlett BensonSystemIQ, London, UK.
Fenna BlomsmaGlobal Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-0996-4717
Chris A BoultonGlobal Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-7836-9391
Joshua E BuxtonGlobal Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK.ORCID 0000-0001-9664-0368
Sara M ConstantinoStanford University, Stanford, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-5533-5885
Sibel EkerInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria.ORCID 0000-0003-2264-132X
Kai GreenleesGlobal Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK.ORCID 0000-0003-4307-626X
Thomas Homer-DixonCascade Institute, Royal Roads University, Victoria, Canada.
Kelly LevinBezos Earth Fund, Washington DC, USA.
Michael B MasciaSanford School of Public Policy, Duke University, Durham, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-9874-9778
Femke J M M NijsseGlobal Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-6674-5350
Ilona M OttoWegener Center for Climate and Global Change, University of Graz, Graz, Austria.ORCID 0000-0003-4935-7660
Viktoria SpaiserSchool of Politics and International Studies, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK.ORCID 0000-0002-5892-245X
Simon SharpeS-Curve Economics, London, UK.
Talia SmithCircular Bioeconomy Alliance, London, UK.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Meeting the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to "well below 2 °C" requires a radical acceleration of action, as the global economy is decarbonising at least five times too slowly. Tipping points, where low-carbon transitions become self-propelling, could be key to achieving the necessary acceleration. We deem these normatively 'positive', because they can limit considerable, inequitable harms from global warming and help achieve sustainability. Some positive tipping points, such as the UK's elimination of coal power, have already been reached at national and sectoral scales. The challenge now is to credibly identify further potential positive tipping points, and the actions that can bring them forward, whilst avoiding wishful thinking about their existence, or oversimplification of their nature, drivers, and impacts. Hence, we propose a methodology for identifying potential positive tipping points, assessing their proximity, identifying the factors that can influence them, and the actions that can trigger them. Building on relevant research, this 'identifying positive tipping points' (IPTiP) methodology aims to establish a common framework that we invite fellow researchers to help refine, and practitioners to apply. To that end, we offer suggestions for further work to improve it and make it more applicable.

Indexed as

AccelerationActionDecarbonisationMethodologyTipping pointTransition

Identifiers

PMID41573230
PMCPMC12819444

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.