ArticleBMC sports science, medicine & rehabilitation2026
Performance thresholds, efficiency, and access equity in junior girls' tennis: longitudinal analysis and bayesian forecasting of ITF rankings (2004-2029).
Article in BMC sports science, medicine & rehabilitation, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
1 citing paper in PubMed.
- Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
1 author.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundPercentile-based thresholds in the International Tennis Federation (ITF) junior ranking system are widely used to gauge competitive standing, yet little is known about their long-term dynamics, systemic biases, and predictive validity. Total Ranking Points (TRP) reflect cumulative achievement but are affected by tournament volume and access. Points per Event (PPE) have therefore been proposed as a complementary efficiency-based metric. The age at which thresholds are reached and the geographic distribution of top performers are critical for understanding developmental timing and equity of access.
objectivesThis study aimed to (1) quantify and forecast cut-off thresholds (P
methodsA longitudinal dataset of 8,413 junior female players ranked in ITF year-end lists (2004-2024) was analysed. TRP were obtained from ITF records, while PPE were calculated as TRP divided by sanctioned tournament entries. Annual percentile cut-offs were derived using binary logistic regression. Geographic equity was assessed via country counts, Shannon diversity, and a sensitivity criterion (≥ 2 players per country). Player ages were calculated from birth year and tested with regression and Kendall's τ. Bayesian Prophet models forecast 2025-2029 thresholds, configured for changepoint detection.
resultsTRP thresholds rose exponentially, while PPE trajectories were more variable. P
conclusionsThe ITF junior girls' ranking system shows accelerating cumulative thresholds (TRP) alongside less predictable efficiency-based patterns (PPE). Elite entry age remains consistently young, broader tiers are ageing, and access to P
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.