ArticleRespiratory research2026
Development and validation of the Tracheostomy‑ProVent score to predict long-term mortality in patients on ventilator care > 21 days: a retrospective cohort study.
Article in Respiratory research, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.
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1 citing paper in PubMed.
- Clinical Determinants of 90-Day Mortality After Tracheostomy in Critically Ill Patients: A Multicenter Retrospective Cohort Study.Medicina (Kaunas, Lithuania) · 2026Article
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7 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundPatients who undergo tracheostomy and remain ventilator-dependent for over 21 days (defined as prolonged mechanical ventilation, PMV) represent a critically ill subgroup with high long-term mortality. Existing prognostic models such as the ProVent score may not fully capture the specific risk profile of these patients. This study aimed to develop and validate a novel prognostic model, the Tracheostomy-ProVent score, to predict 3-, 6-, and 12-month mortality using clinical variables measured on day 21 of mechanical ventilation.
methodsThis retrospective cohort study included 213 tracheostomized adult patients who received invasive mechanical ventilation for more than 21 consecutive days in a tertiary care hospital between February 2011 and February 2023. Multivariate logistic regression was used to identify predictors of mortality and construct a scoring model. Model performance was assessed using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and calibration analyses.
resultsThe cumulative mortality rates in our patient cohort were 55.9%, 62.5%, and 66.7% at the 3-month, 6-month, and 1-year time points, respectively. The Tracheostomy-ProVent score showed strong predictive accuracy, with areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves of 0.871, 0.886, and 0.875 for 3-, 6-, and 12-month mortality, respectively. Notably, the new score significantly outperformed the original ProVent score in predicting 1-year mortality (AUC 0.875 vs. 0.768). The key clinical variables that were consistently associated with mortality included the requirement for vasopressors, platelet count of < 150 × 10³/µL, PaO₂/FiO₂ ratio of < 200 mmHg, and serum albumin level of ≤ 2.8 g/dL on day 21 of MV.
conclusionThe Tracheostomy-ProVent score demonstrates potential as a valuable tool for advanced risk stratification in tracheostomized patients. However, external validation is required to confirm its generalizability prior to widespread clinical application.
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