Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41570077›Full record

ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2026

Paleoclimate pattern effects help constrain climate sensitivity and 21st-century warming.

Vincent T Cooper, Kyle C Armour, Gregory J Hakim, Jessica E Tierney, Natalie J Burls, Cristian Proistosescu, Timothy Andrews, Wenhao Dong, Michelle T Dvorak, Ran Feng and 2 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Paleoclimate pattern effects help constrain climate sensitivity and 21st-century warming.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026
    Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

12 authors.

Vincent T CooperDepartment of Atmospheric and Climate Science, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195.ORCID 0000-0001-9697-1992
Kyle C ArmourDepartment of Atmospheric and Climate Science, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195.ORCID 0000-0002-6833-5179
Gregory J HakimDepartment of Atmospheric and Climate Science, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195.ORCID 0000-0001-8486-9739
Jessica E TierneyDepartment of Geosciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721.ORCID 0000-0002-9080-9289
Natalie J BurlsDepartment of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Earth Sciences, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA 22030.ORCID 0000-0002-6950-3808
Cristian ProistosescuDepartment of Climate, Meteorology, and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Champaign, IL 61820.ORCID 0000-0002-1717-124X
Timothy AndrewsMet Office Hadley Centre, Exeter EX1 3PB, United Kingdom.ORCID 0000-0002-8248-8753
Wenhao DongCooperative Programs for the Advancement of Earth System Science, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80307.ORCID 0000-0002-5662-5435
Michelle T DvorakSchool of Oceanography, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195.ORCID 0000-0003-3946-9773
Ran FengDepartment of Geosciences, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT 06269.
Matthew B OsmanDepartment of Geography, The University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 3EN, United Kingdom.
Yue DongDepartment of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90095.ORCID 0000-0001-6404-3446

Funding

Alfred P. Sloan Foundation (APSF) FG-2020-13568DOC | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) NA20OAR431039DOD | National Defense Science and Engineering Graduate (NDSEG) N/AMet Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme DSITNational Science Foundation (NSF) AGS-1844380National Science Foundation (NSF) AGS-2238875National Science Foundation (NSF) OCE-2002276National Science Foundation (NSF) OCE-2002385National Science Foundation (NSF) OCE-2002398National Science Foundation (NSF) OCE-2002448National Science Foundation (NSF) OCE-2103055
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Paleoclimates provide examples of past climate change that inform estimates of modern warming from greenhouse-gas emissions, known as Earth's climate sensitivity. However, differences between past and present climate change must be accounted for when inferring climate sensitivity from paleoclimate evidence. The closest paleoclimate analog to near-term warming from greenhouse-gas emissions is the Pliocene (5.3 to 2.6 Ma), a warm epoch with atmospheric CO

Indexed as

climate dynamicsclimate projectionsclimate sensitivitycloud feedbackspaleoclimate

Identifiers

PMID41570077
PMCPMC12846834

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.