Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41569592›Full record

ArticleJAMA otolaryngology-- head & neck surgery2026

Prognostic Value of Tumor-Informed Circulating Tumor DNA in HPV-Independent Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma.

Daniel A Ruiz-Torres, Thomas J Roberts, Pan Du, Julia Mendel, Saskia Neagele, Giancarlo Bonora, Frank Zhang, Vasileios Efthymiou, Ross D Merkin, Derrick T Lin and 8 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in JAMA otolaryngology-- head & neck surgery, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
2citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

2 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Potential of hTERT mRNA for the management of advanced head and neck squamous cell carcinoma.European archives of oto-rhino-laryngology : official journal of the European Federation of Oto-Rhino-Laryngological Societies (EUFOS) : affiliated with the German Society for Oto-Rhino-Laryngology - Head and Neck Surgery · 2026
    Article
  2. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

18 authors.

Daniel A Ruiz-TorresDepartment of Otolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery, Massachusetts Eye and Ear, Boston.
Thomas J RobertsDepartment of Medicine, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts.
Pan DuPredicine Inc, Hayward, California.
Julia MendelDepartment of Otolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery, Massachusetts Eye and Ear, Boston.
Saskia NeageleDepartment of Otolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery, Massachusetts Eye and Ear, Boston.
Giancarlo BonoraPredicine Inc, Hayward, California.
Frank ZhangPredicine Inc, Hayward, California.
Vasileios EfthymiouDepartment of Otolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery, Massachusetts Eye and Ear, Boston.
Ross D MerkinDepartment of Medicine, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts.
Derrick T LinDepartment of Otolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery, Massachusetts Eye and Ear, Boston.
Jonathan J PalyDepartment of Medicine, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts.
Mark A VarvaresDepartment of Otolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery, Massachusetts Eye and Ear, Boston.
Daniel G DeschlerDepartment of Otolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery, Massachusetts Eye and Ear, Boston.
Allen L FengDepartment of Otolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery, Massachusetts Eye and Ear, Boston.
Jeremy D RichmonDepartment of Otolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery, Massachusetts Eye and Ear, Boston.
Adam S FischDepartments of Pathology, Massachusetts General Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Boston.
Shidong JiaPredicine Inc, Hayward, California.
Daniel L FadenDepartment of Otolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery, Massachusetts Eye and Ear, Boston.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Importance: Recurrence rates for locally advanced human papillomavirus (HPV)-independent head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) are high. Circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA)-based minimal residual disease (MRD) assays have shown promise to improve management and surveillance in several tumor types, but their clinical utility in HPV-independent HNSCC remains understudied. Objective: To evaluate the performance of a tumor-informed ctDNA-based MRD assay in patients with newly diagnosed locally advanced HNSCC. Design, Setting, and Participants: Between December 2020 and March 2022, among patients newly diagnosed with locally advanced HNSCC treated with surgery followed by risk-adjusted adjuvant treatment at a large referral center specializing in treatment of HNSCC, ctDNA was assessed before surgery, before the start of adjuvant treatment, within 6 weeks of completion of treatment, and during surveillance. Patients were followed up for at least 12 months after treatment completion. Kaplan-Meier survival analyses were used to compare recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) between patients who were MRD positive and those who were MRD negative during each time window. Multivariable Cox hazard regressions were used to assess the association between MRD status and outcomes while controlling for established risk factors. Data were analyzed from August 2024 to March 2025. Intervention: Tumor-informed ctDNA-based MRD testing. Main Outcomes and Measures: RFS and OS. Results: Of 40 included patients, 29 (73%) were male, 38 (95%) had HPV-independent disease, and the median (IQR) age at diagnosis was 63 (28-85) years. A total of 142 samples from 40 patients. A total of 20 patients (50%) experienced recurrence. The presurgery ctDNA detection rate was 97% (35 of 36). MRD positivity within 6 weeks of completion of treatment was associated with worse OS (hazard ratio [HR], 7.15; 95% CI, 1.44-35.34) and RFS (HR, 5.39; 95% CI, 1.98-21.07). MRD positivity during surveillance was associated with worse RFS (HR, 8.27; 95% CI, 2.03-33.64). The median (range) time from first MRD detection to clinical detection of recurrence was 5 (0.2-21.6) months. In multivariable analyses, MRD positivity was associated with worse RFS (HR, 13.84; 95% CI, 2.92-65.68) and worse OS (HR, 18.93; 95% CI, 2.27-157.70). Conclusions and Relevance: In this study, tumor-informed ctDNA MRD positivity was associated with worse RFS and OS in patients with HNSCC. MRD testing could serve as a noninvasive, prognostic biomarker in patients with HPV-independent HNSCC.

Indexed as

Circulating Tumor DNAHead and Neck NeoplasmsSquamous Cell Carcinoma of Head and NeckAdultAgedFemaleHuman Papillomavirus VirusesHumansMaleMiddle AgedNeoplasm Recurrence, LocalNeoplasm, ResidualPrognosisCirculating Tumor DNA

Identifiers

PMID41569592
PMCPMC12828654

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.