ArticleEuropean journal of medical research2026
Construction of a risk prediction model for in-hospital mortality in patients with acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.
Article in European journal of medical research, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
1 citing paper in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Impact of diabetes mellitus on mortality in patients with acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive Pulmonary disease: a meta-analysis and systematic review.Frontiers in endocrinology · 2026Pooled it
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Authors and funding
9 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundExacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) deteriorate patient outcomes and impose substantial burdens on healthcare systems and families. Given this, the present study aimed to develop a prediction model for in-hospital mortality in patients with acute exacerbation of COPD (AECOPD) using readily accessible clinical variables, with the goal of guiding clinical interventions.
methodsA total of 878 consecutive AECOPD patients (807 non-death cases, 71 in-hospital death cases) were prospectively enrolled. Patients were randomly divided into a training set (n = 616) and a validation set (n = 262) at a 7:3 ratio. Logistic regression analysis was performed on the training set to identify factors influencing in-hospital mortality, followed by construction of a nomogram. The model's discrimination, calibration, and clinical applicability were evaluated using the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC), calibration curves, Hosmer-Lemeshow test, decision curve analysis (DCA), and clinical impact curve (CIC).
resultsThe in-hospital mortality rate of AECOPD patients was 8.1%. Independent risk factors for in-hospital mortality included non-invasive mechanical ventilation, invasive mechanical ventilation, disease duration > 10 years, severe condition at admission, and comorbid heart failure (all P < 0.05). The nomogram showed an AUC of 0.909 (95% CI: 0.875-0.942) in the training set and 0.841 (95% CI: 0.742-0.939) in the validation set. Calibration curves and Hosmer-Lemeshow test (training set: χ
conclusionThe nomogram based on mechanical ventilation, disease duration, admission condition, cor pulmonale, and heart failure exhibits excellent predictive performance for in-hospital mortality in AECOPD patients, providing a valuable tool for clinical decision-making.
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