Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41563579›Full record

ArticleMemory & cognition2026

Explaining away the illusion of consensus.

Saoirse Connor Desai, Jacqueline Fai, Jaimie Lee, Brett K Hayes

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Memory & cognition, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
0citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

0 citing papers in PubMed.

No citing paper in PubMed yet.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

Saoirse Connor DesaiSchool of Clinical and Health Sciences, University of Technology Sydney, Ultimo, NSW, Australia. saoirse.c.d@gmail.com.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-7225-8973
Jacqueline FaiUniversity of New South Wales, Kensington, Australia.
Jaimie LeeUniversity of New South Wales, Kensington, Australia.
Brett K HayesUniversity of New South Wales, Kensington, Australia.

Funding

Australian Research Council DP190101224
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Consensus among sources often signals a claim's trustworthiness. However, when all sources simply echo information from a single origin, an "illusion of consensus" can arise, leading individuals to feel equally convinced by a dependent consensus (a single, repeatedly cited source) as by an independent consensus (corroborated information from multiple sources). This effect may occur because repetition can be perceived as a cue for credibility. We conducted four experiments to test whether a negative explanation (e.g., repetition was intended to sway opinion) or a positive explanation (repetition occurred because a source was especially reliable) for repetition of a claim could reduce or enhance the illusion of consensus. Participants engaged in a political poll-reporting task to assess confidence in claims supported by an independent consensus (news outlets citing different polling companies), a dependent consensus without explanation (news outlets citing the same polling company), or a dependent consensus accompanied by explanations intended to either boost or undermine source credibility. Independent consensus was more persuasive than dependent consensus. However, the persuasiveness of dependent consensus was increased or decreased, respectively, by positive or negative explanations for repetition. These effects were found when the explanations were supplied by the experimenter (Experiments 1-2a, 2b) and when participants generated their own explanations (Experiments 3, 4). These findings suggest that social inference processes contribute to the illusion of consensus, with implications for interventions designed to mitigate the impact of misleading claims repeated in media.

Indexed as

ConsensusIllusionsPersuasive CommunicationSocial PerceptionTrustAdultFemaleHumansMaleYoung AdultConsensusCredibilityExplanationJudgmentReasoningRepetition

Identifiers

PMID41563579
PMCPMC13407448

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.