Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41562662›Full record

ArticleInfectious disease reports2026

Faster than Virus: The Physics of Pandemic Prediction.

Serena Vita, Giovanni Morlino, Alessandra D'Abramo, Laura Scorzolini, Gaetano Maffongelli, Delia Goletti, Francesco Vairo, Enrico Girardi, Massimo Ciccozzi, Emanuele Nicastri

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Infectious disease reports, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
0citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

0 citing papers in PubMed.

No citing paper in PubMed yet.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors.

Serena VitaNational Institute for Infectious Diseases Lazzaro Spallanzani-IRCCS, Via Portuense 292, 00149 Rome, Italy.
Giovanni MorlinoINAF/Astronomical Observatory of Arcetri, 50125 Florence, Italy.ORCID 0000-0002-5014-4817
Alessandra D'AbramoNational Institute for Infectious Diseases Lazzaro Spallanzani-IRCCS, Via Portuense 292, 00149 Rome, Italy.ORCID 0000-0002-5160-9743
Laura ScorzoliniNational Institute for Infectious Diseases Lazzaro Spallanzani-IRCCS, Via Portuense 292, 00149 Rome, Italy.
Gaetano MaffongelliNational Institute for Infectious Diseases Lazzaro Spallanzani-IRCCS, Via Portuense 292, 00149 Rome, Italy.
Delia GolettiNational Institute for Infectious Diseases Lazzaro Spallanzani-IRCCS, Via Portuense 292, 00149 Rome, Italy.ORCID 0000-0001-8360-4376
Francesco VairoNational Institute for Infectious Diseases Lazzaro Spallanzani-IRCCS, Via Portuense 292, 00149 Rome, Italy.
Enrico GirardiNational Institute for Infectious Diseases Lazzaro Spallanzani-IRCCS, Via Portuense 292, 00149 Rome, Italy.ORCID 0000-0001-8182-5896
Massimo CiccozziUnit of Medical Statistics and Molecular Epidemiology, Università Campus Bio-Medico di Roma, 00128 Rome, Italy.ORCID 0000-0003-3866-9239
Emanuele NicastriNational Institute for Infectious Diseases Lazzaro Spallanzani-IRCCS, Via Portuense 292, 00149 Rome, Italy.ORCID 0000-0002-5606-8712

Funding

Horizon Europe Framework Programme 101137192
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundZoonotic spillover events with pandemic potential are increasingly associated with environmental change, ecosystem disruption, and intensified human-animal interactions. Although the specific origin and timing of future pandemics remain uncertain, there is a clear need to complement traditional preparedness strategies with approaches that support earlier anticipation and prevention.

objectivesThis study aims to propose a conceptual approach to reframe pandemic preparedness toward proactive surveillance and spillover prevention.

methodsWe introduce a tachyon-inspired conceptual approach, using a thought experiment based on hypothetical faster-than-light particles to illustrate anticipatory observation of pandemic emergence. The framework is informed by interdisciplinary literature on emerging infectious diseases, One Health surveillance, predictive epidemiology, and public-health preparedness.

resultsThe proposed approach highlights the importance of proactive, integrated surveillance systems that combine human, animal, and environmental data. Key elements include the use of advanced analytical tools such as neural networks, early characterization of population risk profiles, strengthened public-health infrastructure, coordinated governance, adaptable financial resources, and a resilient healthcare workforce. The integration of animal welfare considerations, translational research, and planetary health principles is emphasized as central to reducing spillover risk.

conclusionsTachyon-inspired thinking offers a conceptual tool to support a shift from reactive pandemic response toward proactive anticipation and prevention. Embedding integrated surveillance and One Health principles into public-health systems may enhance early detection capacity and contribute to mitigating the impact of future pandemics.

Indexed as

early detectionpandemicpreparednessspillover

Identifiers

PMID41562662
PMCPMC12821524

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.