ArticleFrontiers in public health2025
Latent tuberculosis infection in China, 1990-2050: GBD-informed projections for age-targeted screening.
Article in Frontiers in public health, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
Objective: China bears high latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) caseload, yet its longitudinal trends and age-specific burden remain unquantified, hindering targeted control. Methods: Leveraging data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, we analyzed age-standardized LTBI prevalence rate (ASPR) and cases in mainland China (1990-2021). Joinpoint regression quantified temporal trends, while age-period-cohort (APC) modeling disentangled age/cohort effects. Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) projected prevalence and cases to 2050. Results: From 1990 to 2021, China's LTBI cases rose by 33.28% (1990-2021) despite declining ASPR (EAPC = -0.39). This contrasts with global trends. APC analysis indicated that the risk peak was more prolonged in mainland China, spanning the age range 25-60 years, while 20-29 years age globally. Over the next three decades, China's prevalence will decline until 2036 (29,396.35/100,000), then rebound, reaching 30,184.31 by 2050. Cases peak earlier (2029: 0.42 billion) than globally (2036: 1.80 billion). Conclusion: Mainland China faces a uniquely prolonged LTBI risk window and an impending burden resurgence after 2036. Prioritizing age-targeted screening for 50-69-year-olds and strengthening surveillance are critical to achieving TB elimination.
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