Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41553578›Full record

ArticleWorld journal of urology2026

Development and external validation of a nomogram predicting cancer-specific mortality-free survival after trimodal therapy in muscle-invasive bladder cancer.

Mattia Longoni, Fabian Falkenbach, Andrea Marmiroli, Quynh Chi Le, Michele Nicolazzini, Calogero Catanzaro, Federico Polverino, Jordan A Goyal, Markus Graefen, Matteo Ferro and 11 more

Erratum issuedAbstract readValidation Study
PubMed Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in World journal of urology, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Extent of Pelvic Lymph Node Dissection at Partial Cystectomy: Effect on Cancer-Specific Mortality.International journal of urology : official journal of the Japanese Urological Association · 2026
    Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

21 authors.

Mattia LongoniCancer Prognostics and Health Outcomes Unit, Division of Urology, University of Montréal Health Center, Montréal, Québec, Canada. longoni.mattia@hsr.it.
Fabian FalkenbachCancer Prognostics and Health Outcomes Unit, Division of Urology, University of Montréal Health Center, Montréal, Québec, Canada.
Andrea MarmiroliCancer Prognostics and Health Outcomes Unit, Division of Urology, University of Montréal Health Center, Montréal, Québec, Canada.
Quynh Chi LeCancer Prognostics and Health Outcomes Unit, Division of Urology, University of Montréal Health Center, Montréal, Québec, Canada.
Michele NicolazziniCancer Prognostics and Health Outcomes Unit, Division of Urology, University of Montréal Health Center, Montréal, Québec, Canada.
Calogero CatanzaroCancer Prognostics and Health Outcomes Unit, Division of Urology, University of Montréal Health Center, Montréal, Québec, Canada.
Federico PolverinoCancer Prognostics and Health Outcomes Unit, Division of Urology, University of Montréal Health Center, Montréal, Québec, Canada.
Jordan A GoyalCancer Prognostics and Health Outcomes Unit, Division of Urology, University of Montréal Health Center, Montréal, Québec, Canada.
Markus GraefenMartini-Klinik Prostate Cancer Center, University Hospital Hamburg-Eppendorf, Hamburg, Germany.
Matteo FerroUnit of Urology, Department of Health Science, University of Milan, ASST Santi Paolo e Carlo, Milan, Italy.
Felix K H ChunDepartment of Urology, Goethe University Frankfurt, University Hospital, Frankfurt am Main, Germany.
Carlotta PalumboDivision of Urology, Department of Translational Medicine, University of Eastern Piedmont, Maggiore della Carità Hospital, Novara, Italy.
Riccardo SchiavinaDepartment of Urology, University of Bologna, St. Orsola-Malpighi Hospital, Bologna, Italy.
Nicola LongoDepartment of Neurosciences, Science of Reproduction and Odontostomatology, University of Naples Federico II, Naples, Italy.
Fred SaadCancer Prognostics and Health Outcomes Unit, Division of Urology, University of Montréal Health Center, Montréal, Québec, Canada.
Shahrokh F ShariatDepartment of Urology, Weill Cornell Medical College, New York, NY, USA.
Marco MoschiniDivision of Experimental Oncology, Unit of Urology, Urological Research Institute (URI), IRCCS Ospedale San Raffaele, Milan, Italy.
Giorgio GandagliaDivision of Experimental Oncology, Unit of Urology, Urological Research Institute (URI), IRCCS Ospedale San Raffaele, Milan, Italy.
Francesco MontorsiDivision of Experimental Oncology, Unit of Urology, Urological Research Institute (URI), IRCCS Ospedale San Raffaele, Milan, Italy.
Alberto BrigantiDivision of Experimental Oncology, Unit of Urology, Urological Research Institute (URI), IRCCS Ospedale San Raffaele, Milan, Italy.
Pierre I KarakiewiczCancer Prognostics and Health Outcomes Unit, Division of Urology, University of Montréal Health Center, Montréal, Québec, Canada.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

introductionWe developed and externally validated a novel population-based model for predicting cancer-specific mortality free survival (CSM-FS) in trimodal therapy (TMT)-treated muscle-invasive bladder cancer (MIBC) patients, and we compared its performance to that of AJCC categories.

methodsWithin the SEER database (2004-2021), we identified MIΒC patients treated with TMT (n = 1801). The population was randomly divided into development (n = 900, 50%) and external validation (n = 901, 50%) cohorts. Univariable Cox-regression models addressing CSM were fitted. Subsequently, the most parsimonious model with the best validation metrics was selected. Accuracy, calibration, and decision curve analyses (DCAs) tested the novel nomogram relative to the AJCC staging within the external validation cohort.

resultsAge at diagnosis, sex, median household income, T stage, N stage, and tumor size qualified for inclusion in the nomogram predicting CSM-FS. In external validation cohort, the accuracy of the novel nomogram predictions at two vs. three vs. four years after TMT was 0.70 vs. 0.67 vs. 0.66, respectively. Conversely, AJCC staging accuracy was 0.57 vs. 0.56 vs. 0.55 for the same timepoints. The novel nomogram predictions were well calibrated relative to observed CSM-FS rates. Finally, in DCAs the novel nomogram outperformed AJCC staging at all three timepoints.

conclusionThe novel nomogram for TMT-treated patients outperformed AJCC-based predictions of CSM-FS, when accuracy and DCAs represented the benchmarks of interest. However, its predictive accuracy is not ideal.

Indexed as

NomogramsUrinary Bladder NeoplasmsAgedCombined Modality TherapyDisease-Free SurvivalFemaleHumansMaleMiddle AgedNeoplasm InvasivenessNeoplasm StagingSurvival RateCancer-specific mortalityNomogramPredictionSurvivalTrimodal therapy

Identifiers

PMID41553578

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.