ArticleAmerican journal of translational research2025
Development and validation of a risk prediction model for new-onset gastrointestinal bleeding in critically ill patients: a retrospective analysis.
Article in American journal of translational research, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
objectivesTo explore risk factors for new-onset gastrointestinal bleeding (GIB) in critically ill patients and construct a predictive model.
methodsA retrospective study of 241 intensive care unit patients was conducted. Clinical data, laboratory indicators, treatments, and outcomes were collected. Risk factors were analyzed via univariate and multivariate logistic regression. A nomogram was established, and its performance was assessed using receiver operating characteristic curves, concordance index (C-index), calibration plots, Hosmer-Lemeshow test, bootstrap resampling, and decision curve analysis (DCA). Internal and external validation were performed.
resultsAge ≥ 65, shock, sepsis, renal dysfunction, hepatic failure, mechanical ventilation > 48 h, and hemoglobin < 8 g/dL were independent risk factors for new-onset GIB, while albumin < 30 g/L emerged as a predictive factor. The nomogram demonstrated strong discrimination (C-index 0.825 in the training cohort, 0.804 in the validation cohort), good calibration, and favorable clinical utility. DCA confirmed its benefit in guiding clinical decisions.
conclusionMultiple comorbidities and treatment-related factors contribute to new-onset GIB in critically ill patients. The developed nomogram provides an effective tool for individualized risk assessment, supporting early intervention and improved outcomes.
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