Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41551411›Full record

ArticleJHEP reports : innovation in hepatology2026

Blood-based Vienna 3P/5P risk models accurately predict first hepatic decompensation in compensated advanced chronic liver disease.

Georg Kramer, Benedikt Simbrunner, Mathias Jachs, Lorenz Balcar, Benedikt Silvester Hofer, Nina Dominik, Lukas Hartl, Michael Schwarz, Georg Semmler, Christian Sebesta and 12 more

Registry-linked trialAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in JHEP reports : innovation in hepatology, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to trial NCT03267615 (VICIS - Vienna Cirrhosis Study), which is not on this map. Cited by 3 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
3citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

NCT03267615 recruitingnot on this map

VICIS - Vienna Cirrhosis Study

Typeobservational_patient_registrySponsorMedical University of ViennaRan2017 to 2027Enrolled10,000ConditionsLiver Cirrhosis, Portal Hypertension, Ascites, Variceal Hemorrhage
3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

3 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Review
  3. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

22 authors.

Georg KramerDivision of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine III, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria.
Benedikt SimbrunnerDivision of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine III, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria.
Mathias JachsDivision of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine III, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria.
Lorenz BalcarDivision of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine III, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria.
Benedikt Silvester HoferDivision of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine III, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria.
Nina DominikDivision of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine III, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria.
Lukas HartlDivision of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine III, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria.
Michael SchwarzDivision of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine III, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria.
Georg SemmlerDivision of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine III, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria.
Christian SebestaDivision of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine III, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria.
Paul ThöneDivision of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine III, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria.
Sophia GeisselbrechtDepartment of Gastroenterology, Hepatology, Infectious Diseases and Endocrinology, Hannover Medical School Hannover, Germany.
Benjamin MaasoumyDepartment of Gastroenterology, Hepatology, Infectious Diseases and Endocrinology, Hannover Medical School Hannover, Germany.
Eduardo AlvarezDepartment of Internal Medicine B, University Hospital Muenster (UKM), Muenster, Germany.
Martin Sebastian McCoyDepartment of Internal Medicine B, University Hospital Muenster (UKM), Muenster, Germany.
Oleksandr PetrenkoDivision of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine III, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria.
Jiří ReinišCeMM Research Center for Molecular Medicine of the Austrian Academy of Sciences, Vienna, Austria.
Philipp SchwablDivision of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine III, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria.
Albert F StättermayerDivision of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine III, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria.
Michael TraunerDivision of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine III, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria.
Mattias MandorferDivision of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine III, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria.
Thomas ReibergerDivision of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Medicine III, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Background & Aims: Invasive measurement of hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) is the gold standard for diagnosing clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH, Methods: Patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD) who underwent HVPG measurement and LSM within the prospective VICIS (Vienna Cirrhosis Study) were included. We assessed the ability of each model to detect CSPH and severe PH (HVPG ≥16 mmHg), predict decompensation, and stratify risk. Outcome prediction was further validated in an external cohort. Results: Among 266 patients with diverse etiologies of cACLD, median HVPG was 11 (8-16) mmHg with a CSPH and severe PH prevalence of 62.8% and 25.6%, respectively. The 3P/5P models correlated with HVPG (both Conclusion: The blood-based 3P/5P models demonstrated significant prognostic value for predicting hepatic decompensation and identifying patients with cACLD at high risk. Importantly, the 5P model performed comparably to HVPG. Impact and implications: This study addresses the clinical need for accessible, reliable, and cost-effective non-invasive tools to predict hepatic decompensation in patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease, given the limited availability of hepatic venous pressure gradient and liver stiffness measurement. By demonstrating that the Vienna 3P/5P models - machine learning tools based solely on routine laboratory parameters - achieve comparable prognostic accuracy to hepatic venous pressure gradient and outperform other non-invasive tools, such as liver stiffness measurement or the ANTICIPATE±NASH model, these findings have significant implications for clinicians providing care for patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease. The models' simplicity, repeatability and wide availability could facilitate timely risk stratification and improved clinical management across diverse healthcare settings. Clinical trial number: NCT03267615.

Indexed as

BavenobetablockersCirrhosisclinically significant portal hypertensionliver stiffnessmachine learningnon-invasive tests

Identifiers

PMID41551411
PMCPMC12810536

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Registered trials

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.