ArticleFrontiers in nutrition2025
Attributable burden of high BMI-related gastrointestinal tract cancers among middle-aged and elderly populations globally, 1990-2021 and projected to 2050: analysis of GBD 2021.
Article in Frontiers in nutrition, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
1 citing paper in PubMed.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
9 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Background: The global burden of gastrointestinal tract cancers (GICs)-specifically liver cancer (LC), colorectal cancer (CRC), gallbladder and biliary tract cancers (GBTCs), and pancreatic cancer (PC)-attributable to high body mass index (BMI) is of increasing concern, especially among middle-aged and elderly populations. Methods: Using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 1990-2021, we assessed deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR), and estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC) for LC, GBTCs, CRC, and PC attributable to high BMI in middle-aged and elderly populations. We analyzed regional, national, and Socio-demographic Index (SDI)-stratified patterns and their association with SDI and Human Development Index (HDI). Forecasts to 2050 were based on historical trends in these age groups. Results: From 1990 to 2021, LC deaths increased by 363% to 40,958, with ASMR rising from 1.0 to 2.2 per 100,000 (EAPC: 2.4%). GBTC deaths rose by 109% to 19,035, but ASMR slightly declined from 1.1 to 1.0 (EAPC: -0.5%). CRC deaths increased by 140% to 92,013, with stable ASMR (4.9 to 5.0; EAPC: -0.1%). Pancreatic cancer mortality also increased globally (EAPC: 4.4%), with high-SDI regions bearing the highest burden and middle-SDI regions experiencing the fastest growth (EAPC: 18.1%). East Asia bore the highest burden for all cancers, while South Asia showed the fastest mortality increases (EAPC: 5.4% for LC, 2.9% for CRC). At the national level, China and India contributed the largest share of deaths, while Indonesia and Vietnam showed the fastest growth in mortality. High-SDI regions had the largest absolute burden, but middle-SDI regions exhibited the fastest growth. All cancers showed male predominance, peaking at ages 60-79 years (LC: 60-64; GBTCs: 65-69; CRC: 75-79). ASMR followed an inverted U-shaped curve with SDI and HDI, peaking at SDI 0.7-0.9. By 2050, CRC and LC are projected to see rising DALYs and Years Lived with Disability (YLDs) in middle-aged and elderly populations, while GBTCs remain stable, with declining Years of Life Lost (YLLs) rates across all cancers. Conclusion: The escalating burden of high BMI-related GICs-particularly LC, CRC, GBTCs, and PC-in aging populations, especially in developing regions, highlights the urgent need for targeted interventions in prevention, early detection, and survivorship care.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.