Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41548017›Full record

ArticleScientific reports2026

Reconstruction of temperature, precipitation, and identification of extreme climate events in high mountain Asia over 500 years using multi-method EnKF.

Jun Zhou, Feng Chen, Yu Zhu, Fuming Xie, Caixia Qin, Hanqiang Tian, Yiyuan Shen, Xin Yang, Yunpeng Duan, Muhammad Mannan Afzal and 1 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Scientific reports, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

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1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

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3 · Its place in the literature

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0 citing papers in PubMed.

No citing paper in PubMed yet.

4 · The record

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5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

11 authors.

Jun ZhouYunnan Key Laboratory of International Rivers and Transboundary Eco-Security, Yunnan University, Kunming, 650500, China.
Feng ChenYunnan Key Laboratory of International Rivers and Transboundary Eco-Security, Yunnan University, Kunming, 650500, China.
Yu ZhuYunnan Key Laboratory of International Rivers and Transboundary Eco-Security, Yunnan University, Kunming, 650500, China.
Fuming XieYunnan Key Laboratory of International Rivers and Transboundary Eco-Security, Yunnan University, Kunming, 650500, China.
Caixia QinYunnan Key Laboratory of International Rivers and Transboundary Eco-Security, Yunnan University, Kunming, 650500, China.
Hanqiang TianYunnan Key Laboratory of International Rivers and Transboundary Eco-Security, Yunnan University, Kunming, 650500, China.
Yiyuan ShenYunnan Key Laboratory of International Rivers and Transboundary Eco-Security, Yunnan University, Kunming, 650500, China.
Xin YangYunnan Key Laboratory of International Rivers and Transboundary Eco-Security, Yunnan University, Kunming, 650500, China.
Yunpeng DuanYunnan Key Laboratory of International Rivers and Transboundary Eco-Security, Yunnan University, Kunming, 650500, China.
Muhammad Mannan AfzalYunnan Key Laboratory of International Rivers and Transboundary Eco-Security, Yunnan University, Kunming, 650500, China.
Shiyin LiuYunnan Key Laboratory of International Rivers and Transboundary Eco-Security, Yunnan University, Kunming, 650500, China. shiyin.liu@ynu.edu.cn.

Funding

National Key Research and Development Program of China 2024YFC3013400National Science Foundation of China 42171129Scientific Research Fund Project of Yunnan Education Department 2025Y0071Yunnan University Postgraduate Scientific Research Innovation Fund Project KC-24248782
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

High Mountain Asia (HMA) has experienced rapid warming and increased climate extremes, yet limited instrumental records constrain understanding of whether recent changes exceed long-term natural variability. Paleoclimate data assimilation offers opportunities to integrate sparse proxy observations with climate model priors, generating spatiotemporally complete reconstructions. We reconstructed gridded temperature and precipitation fields (1501–2000 CE) and identified extreme climate events across HMA by applying three Ensemble Kalman Filter methods to a baseline Pages2k dataset (201 records) and an expanded Combined dataset (297 records). Cross-validation demonstrates skillful temperature reconstruction and modest precipitation skill. The three methods show high consistency, while expanding the baseline dataset with additional proxies enhances extreme event detection by 39% for cold years and 21% for warm years. Systematic extreme event identification reveals that cold/warm years account for 11.0% and 8.6% of the 500-year record. Three major events are identified: the 1641–1644 cold event (80–100% coverage, -0.68 K), the 1817–1820 compound cold-dry extreme (-0.64 K, -0.13 mm/day), and the 1994–2000 warm-wet episode (+ 0.83 K, + 0.14 mm/day) as the longest sustained warming in the 500-year record. Our 500-year climate fields provide a quantitative baseline for contextualizing recent HMA changes within pre-industrial variability.

Identifiers

PMID41548017
PMCPMC12890918

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.