Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41541743›Full record

ReviewThe journal of liquid biopsy2025

Circulating tumour DNA (ctDNA) as a predictor of progression-free and overall survival in non-resectable pancreatic cancer: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Mette M Steiniche, Louise B Callesen, Elizabeth H Vlk, Lise Ventzel, Signe Timm, Rikke F Andersen, Sidsel C Lindgaard, Torben F Hansen, Morten Ladekarl, Karen-Lise G Spindler

Abstract readReview
In one paragraph

Review in The journal of liquid biopsy, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 5 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
5citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

5 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Review
  2. Clinical and Molecular Correlates of Circulating Tumor Fraction in Patients with Metastatic Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma.Clinical cancer research : an official journal of the American Association for Cancer Research · 2026
    Article
  3. Article
  4. Review
  5. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors.

Mette M SteinicheDepartment of Oncology, Aarhus University Hospital, Aarhus, Denmark.
Louise B CallesenDepartment of Oncology, Aarhus University Hospital, Aarhus, Denmark.
Elizabeth H VlkDepartment of Oncology, Aarhus University Hospital, Aarhus, Denmark.
Lise VentzelDepartment of Oncology, University Hospital of Southern Denmark, Vejle, Denmark.
Signe TimmDepartment of Oncology, University Hospital of Southern Denmark, Vejle, Denmark.
Rikke F AndersenDepartment of Biochemistry and Immunology, University Hospital of Southern Denmark, Vejle, Denmark.
Sidsel C LindgaardDepartment of Oncology, Copenhagen University Hospital - Herlev and Gentofte, Herlev, Denmark.
Torben F HansenDepartment of Oncology, University Hospital of Southern Denmark, Vejle, Denmark.
Morten LadekarlDepartment of Oncology and Clinical Cancer Research Center, Aalborg University Hospital, Aalborg, Denmark.
Karen-Lise G SpindlerDepartment of Oncology, Aarhus University Hospital, Aarhus, Denmark.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Background: This systematic review and meta-analysis synthesised current evidence on circulating tumour DNA (ctDNA) for predicting clinical outcomes in patients with non-resectable pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). Methods: PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane databases were searched up to 31/01/2025. Eligible studies reported prognostic value of ctDNA in patients with non-resectable PDAC. Meta-analyses evaluated associations between baseline ctDNA and changes in ctDNA during treatment (ctDNA kinetics) and survival outcomes. Risk of bias was assessed using the Quality in Prognosis Studies (QUIPS) tool. Results: Sixty-four studies involving 5652 patients with non-resectable PDAC were included, with 24 studies contributing to meta-analyses. High baseline ctDNA level implied shorter overall survival (OS; HR = 2.3, 95 % CI 1.9-2.8; n = 1883) and progression-free survival (PFS; HR = 2.1, 95 % CI 1.8-2.4; n = 1196). Unfavourable ctDNA kinetics were associated with shorter OS (HR = 3.1, 95 % CI 2.3-4.3; n = 269) and PFS (HR = 4.3, 95 % CI 2.6-7.2; n = 244). Thirty-three studies had high risk of bias in at least one QUIPS domain. Conclusion: Baseline ctDNA and ctDNA kinetics demonstrate strong prognostic value in non-resectable PDAC. However, clinical translation is limited by methodological heterogeneity, notably the use of study-specific, non-validated thresholds. Standardised, externally validated thresholds for interpreting ctDNA changes are needed to support clinical implementation. Prospero: CRD42023438774.

Indexed as

Advanced pancreatic cancerBiomarkersCell-free DNA (cfDNA)Circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA)ctDNA dynamicsctDNA kineticsLiquid biopsyMeta-analysisMetastatic pancreatic cancerOutcomes / kliniske endpointsOverall survival (OS)Pancreatic cancerPancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC)Predictive biomarkerPrognosisPrognostic biomarkerProgression-free survival (PFS)RECIST / ctDNA-RECISTResponse evaluationSurvivalSystematic reviewTreatment responseUnresectable pancreatic cancer

Identifiers

PMID41541743
PMCPMC12799495

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.