Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41540002›Full record

ArticleNature communications2026

Excess mortality in Europe estimated by EuroMOMO during the COVID-19 pandemic and previous influenza seasons.

Sarah K Nørgaard, Jens Nielsen, Christel B Schjørring, Albert S Kalnæs, Lukas Richter, Alena Chalupka, Toon Braeye, Serge Nganda Mekogo, Maria Athanasiadou, Theodore Lytras and 41 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Nature communications, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
3citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

3 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Article
  3. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

51 authors.

Sarah K NørgaardDepartment of Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Prevention, Statens Serum Institut, Copenhagen, Denmark. sknd@ssi.dk.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-7434-5584
Jens NielsenDepartment of Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Prevention, Statens Serum Institut, Copenhagen, Denmark.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-6477-2219
Christel B SchjørringDepartment of Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Prevention, Statens Serum Institut, Copenhagen, Denmark.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9743-243X
Albert S KalnæsDepartment of Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Prevention, Statens Serum Institut, Copenhagen, Denmark.
Lukas RichterAustrian Agency for Health and Food Safety, Vienna, Austria.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-6982-6239
Alena ChalupkaAustrian Agency for Health and Food Safety, Vienna, Austria.ORCID http://orcid.org/0009-0000-3291-1456
Toon BraeyeSciensano, Brussels, Belgium.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5637-4613
Serge Nganda MekogoSciensano, Brussels, Belgium.
Maria AthanasiadouHealth Monitoring Unit, Cyprus Ministry of Health, Nicosia, Cyprus.
Theodore LytrasSchool of Medicine, European University Cyprus, Nicosia, Cyprus.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-4146-4122
Gleb DenissovNational Institute for Health Development, Tallinn, Estonia.ORCID http://orcid.org/0009-0007-5797-8164
Oskari LuomalaFinnish Institute for Health and Welfare (THL), Helsinki, Finland.ORCID http://orcid.org/0009-0002-6777-9760
Isabelle PontaisSanté publique France, Saint-Maurice, France.
Benedikt ZacherRobert Koch Institute, Berlin, Germany.
Matthias An der HeidenRobert Koch Institute, Berlin, Germany.
Kassiani MellouHellenic National Public Health Organization, Athens, Greece.
Ioannis PanagouliasHellenic National Public Health Organization, Athens, Greece.
Anna PaldyNational Center for Public Health and Pharmacy, Budapest, Hungary.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-9166-7374
Tibor MalnasiNational Center for Public Health and Pharmacy, Budapest, Hungary.
Eva KellyHealth Protection Surveillance Centre, Dublin, Ireland.
Naama RotemCentral Bureau of Statistics, Jerusalem, Israel.
Francesca K de'DonatoDepartment of Epidemiology Lazio Regional Health System - ASL Roma 1, Rome, Italy.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2225-9457
Chiara Di BlasiDepartment of Epidemiology Lazio Regional Health System - ASL Roma 1, Rome, Italy.
Joël MossongHealth Directorate, Luxembourg, Luxembourg.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-0717-9835
Anne VergisonHealth Directorate, Luxembourg, Luxembourg.
Kathleen EnglandDirectorate for Health Information and Research, Pieta, Malta.
Neville CallejaDirectorate for Health Information and Research, Pieta, Malta.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-1800-2103
Liselotte van AstenCentre for Infectious Disease Control Netherlands, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven, The Netherlands.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-4123-7595
Jan van de KassteeleCentre for Infectious Disease Control Netherlands, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven, The Netherlands.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5926-6709
Christian MadsenDepartment of Disease Burden, NIPH - Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Bergen, Norway.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-1938-9100
Susana SilvaDepartment of Epidemiology, Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr. Ricardo Jorge, Lisbon, Portugal.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-2524-0548
Ana Paula RodriguesDepartment of Epidemiology, Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr. Ricardo Jorge, Lisbon, Portugal.
Natalija KranjecCommunicable Diseases Centre, National Institute of Public Health, Ljubljana, Slovenia.
Inmaculada León-GómezPhD program in Biomedical Sciences and Public Health, National University of Distance Education (UNED), Madrid, Spain.
Diana Gomez-BarrosoNational Centre of Epidemiology, CIBER Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP), Carlos III Health Institute, Madrid, Spain.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-7388-1767
Ilias GalanisPublic Health Agency of Sweden, Stockholm, Sweden.
Ahmed FarahPublic Health Agency of Sweden, Stockholm, Sweden.
Rolf WeitkunatFederal Statistical Office, Neuchâtel, Switzerland.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-2248-9727
Nick AndrewsUK Health Security Agency, Colindale, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.
Tom ClareUK Health Security Agency, Colindale, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-1292-3673
Magda BucholcPublic Health Agency, Northern Ireland, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.
Declan T BradleyPublic Health Agency, Northern Ireland, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-1468-1823
Naoma WilliamPublic Health Scotland, Glasgow, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.
Mark HamiltonPublic Health Scotland, Glasgow, United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.
Pernille JorgensenWorld Health Organization, Regional Office for Europe, Copenhagen, Denmark.
Richard G PebodyWorld Health Organization, Regional Office for Europe, Copenhagen, Denmark.
Nick BundleEuropean Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), Stockholm, Sweden.
Bolette SøborgDepartment of Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Prevention, Statens Serum Institut, Copenhagen, Denmark.
Tyra G KrauseDepartment of Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Prevention, Statens Serum Institut, Copenhagen, Denmark.
Kåre MølbakDepartment of Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Prevention, Statens Serum Institut, Copenhagen, Denmark.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-3100-4990
Lasse S VestergaardDepartment of Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Prevention, Statens Serum Institut, Copenhagen, Denmark. lav@ssi.dk.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-3013-9612

Funding

World Health Organization 001
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Important questions remain regarding differences in geographical and age-specific mortality patterns as the COVID-19 pandemic evolved in consecutive waves, and how COVID-19 mortality compares to seasonal influenza. In a pandemic situation, excess all-cause mortality provides a more complete and robust measure than cause-specific mortality. Data submitted by 26 countries participating in the European Mortality Monitoring (EuroMOMO) network between 2020 and 2023 was analysed to quantify excess all-cause mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic. Excess mortality from this period was compared to previous influenza seasons from 2014 to 2019. Pooled estimates of excess mortality showed four main waves during the COVID-19 pandemic period, most markedly in people aged 65 years and above, with timing and magnitude that varied between countries. Here we show that prior to implementation of control measures and COVID-19 vaccination, excess mortality greatly exceeded typical seasonal influenza mortality, but later during the pandemic was at levels comparable to influenza.

Indexed as

COVID-19Influenza, HumanAgedEuropeHumansPandemicsSARS-CoV-2Seasons

Identifiers

PMID41540002
PMCPMC12876888

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.