Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41537271›Full record

ArticlePsychological medicine2026

Gender and anxiety reveal distinct computational sources of underconfidence.

Sucharit Katyal, Stephen M Fleming

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Psychological medicine, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
2citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

2 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

2 authors.

Sucharit KatyalDepartment of Psychology, University of Copenhagen, Denmark.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0390-9311
Stephen M FlemingMax Planck UCL Centre for Computational Psychiatry and Ageing Research, University College London, UK.

Funding

Wellcome Trust Sir Henry Dale Fellowship (206648/Z/17/Z)
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundConfidence exhibits systematic individual differences across mental health, gender, and age. However, it remains unknown whether these distinct sources of metacognitive bias have common or distinct computational origins.

methodsTo address this question, we developed a novel dynamic computational model of metacognition to study the temporal evolution of underconfidence associated with individual differences in transdiagnostic anxiety symptoms and gender in samples of online participants (total

resultsWe found that underconfidence associated with anxiety symptoms became more prominent the longer individuals took to make metacognitive judgments - suggesting that it is exacerbated by additional time for introspection. In contrast, gender-related underconfidence decreased with greater metacognitive judgment time - suggesting that additional time for introspection is able to remediate prepotent biases. Our computational model of confidence explained these effects - while both gender and anxiety symptoms involved shifts in confidence criteria, only anxiety symptoms involved a temporal accumulation of negatively biased evidence about one's ability.

conclusionsOur study reveals multiple computational pathways to the formation of underconfidence, in turn highlighting specific potential mechanisms for its remediation.

Indexed as

AnxietyMetacognitionAdultComputer SimulationFemaleHumansIndividualityJudgmentMaleModels, PsychologicalSex FactorsYoung Adultanxietycomputational modellingcomputational psychiatrydrift-diffusion modelsevidence accumulation modelsgendermetacognitionmetacognitive biasunderconfidence

Identifiers

PMID41537271
PMCPMC12885344

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.