Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41536295›Full record

ArticleNational science review2026

Climate mitigation outcomes from China-led emission reductions toward global carbon neutrality.

Yadong Lei, Zhili Wang, Junting Zhong, Xiaochao Yu, Lifeng Guo, Chenguang Tian, Lei Li, Yixiong Lu, Da Zhang, Lin Liu and 3 more

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in National science review, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
0citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

0 citing papers in PubMed.

No citing paper in PubMed yet.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

13 authors.

Yadong LeiState Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Meteorological Science and Technology & Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Chemistry of CMA, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1041-3530
Zhili WangState Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Meteorological Science and Technology & Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Chemistry of CMA, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China.
Junting ZhongState Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Meteorological Science and Technology & Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Chemistry of CMA, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China.
Xiaochao YuState Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Meteorological Science and Technology & Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Chemistry of CMA, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China.
Lifeng GuoState Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Meteorological Science and Technology & Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Chemistry of CMA, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China.
Chenguang TianSchool of Environmental Science and Engineering, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China.
Lei LiState Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Meteorological Science and Technology & Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Chemistry of CMA, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China.
Yixiong LuCMA Earth System Modeling and Prediction Centre, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China.
Da ZhangTsinghua-CTG Joint Center for Climate Governance and Low-carbon Transformation, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100086, China.
Lin LiuState Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Meteorological Science and Technology & Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Chemistry of CMA, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China.
Deying WangState Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Meteorological Science and Technology & Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Chemistry of CMA, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China.
Huizheng CheState Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Meteorological Science and Technology & Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Chemistry of CMA, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China.
Xiaoye ZhangState Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Meteorological Science and Technology & Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Chemistry of CMA, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081, China.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

While many nations committed to the Paris Agreement have completed the second-round updates to their nationally determined contributions (NDCs), especially China's dual carbon commitment, the specific climate outcomes of these latest NDCs remain uncertain. Here, we quantify the potential climate mitigation outcomes from these latest NDCs through ensemble simulations of an Earth System Model under a newly developed global emission scenario aligned with China's carbon neutrality pathway. We project a global temperature rise of 2.05°C during 2081-2100 through the implementation of the latest NDCs, demonstrating a likely achievable 2.0°C target without early extensive carbon removal technologies. Moreover, our results demonstrate that the latest NDCs will yield significant long-term climate benefits while incurring adverse near-term impacts, revealing temporally asymmetric climate outcomes when compared to fixing anthropogenic emissions at 2023 levels. We believe this work is valuable for understanding more plausible future climate change, with particular relevance to the ongoing seventh assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

Indexed as

climate mitigation outcomesemissions scenarioNDCswarming level

Identifiers

PMID41536295
PMCPMC12796822

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.