Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41533657›Full record

ArticleScience progress

The potential impact of public health care denial on the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in South Africa.

Maureen Juga, Farai Nyabadza

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Science progress. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
0citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

0 citing papers in PubMed.

No citing paper in PubMed yet.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

2 authors.

Maureen JugaDepartment of Mathematics and Applied, University of Johannesburg, Auckland Park Campus, Johannesburg, South Africa.ORCID 0000-0002-8804-4387
Farai NyabadzaDepartment of Mathematics and Applied, University of Johannesburg, Auckland Park Campus, Johannesburg, South Africa.ORCID 0000-0003-3468-5581

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

When the demand for public health care increases, governments often prioritize citizens over foreign nationals. In South Africa, limited resources and socio-economic inequalities pose unique challenges to epidemic control. The overcrowding and increasing demand for public healthcare have led to protests by some community groups, which have led to the denial of healthcare to migrants. Denying treatment to some infected individuals has the propensity to lead to an increase in the size of an epidemic. We introduce a novel epidemiological model that incorporates health care denial as a dynamic factor influencing the transmission of COVID-19. It incorporates healthcare denial as a key parameter influencing the progression and recovery rates of infections. The study presents a novel framework for understanding the intersection of healthcare access denial and the transmission dynamics of COVID-19. While much of the existing literature has focused on the direct effects of healthcare interventions on pandemic control, this research uniquely emphasizes the role that restricted access to healthcare services, whether due to policy decisions, resource shortages, or system inefficiencies, can exacerbate the spread of infectious diseases. The treatment class of the model is partitioned to account for individuals denied treatment at public healthcare facilities. Analytical results establish conditions for the existence and stability of both disease-free and endemic equilibria, with the basic reproduction number

Indexed as

COVID-19Health Services AccessibilityPublic HealthEpidemiological ModelsHumansPandemicsSARS-CoV-2South AfricaCOVID-19Health care denialmodel fittingsimulationsstabilitysteady states

Identifiers

PMID41533657
PMCPMC12804654

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY-NC
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.