Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41532540›Full record

ArticleJournal of the American Heart Association2026

Critical Temperature Thresholds for Identifying Vulnerability to Heat-Related Excess Cardiovascular Morbidity and Mortality.

Peter M Graffy, Benjamin W Barrett, Daniel E Horton, Abel N Kho, Norrina B Allen

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Journal of the American Heart Association, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 3 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
3citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

3 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors.

Peter M GraffyHealth Sciences Integrated Program, Northwestern University Chicago IL USA.ORCID 0000-0002-2156-7175
Benjamin W BarrettHealth Sciences Integrated Program, Northwestern University Chicago IL USA.ORCID 0000-0002-3292-7017
Daniel E HortonDepartment of Earth, Environmental, and Planetary Sciences Northwestern University Evanston IL USA.ORCID 0000-0002-2065-4517
Abel N KhoDepartment of Preventive Medicine Northwestern University Chicago IL USA.ORCID 0000-0003-1993-5634
Norrina B AllenDepartment of Preventive Medicine Northwestern University Chicago IL USA.ORCID 0000-0002-6993-4384

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundExtreme heat is a well-established environmental hazard linked to elevated cardiovascular disease (CVD) morbidity and mortality, yet few studies evaluate temperature effects across multiple temporal scales or identify community-specific vulnerability.

methodsWe analyzed neighborhood-level CVD deaths and emergency department visits linked to sociodemographic characteristics and high-resolution temperature and humidity estimates. Generalized additive models with smooth splines for temperature, humidity, age, and time estimated excess heat-related rates across temporal scales. Principal component analysis and k-means clustering classified Chicago community areas by multidimensional heat vulnerability.

resultsHigher temperatures were significantly associated with increased CVD and coronary heart disease mortality across warm-season, monthly, and daily scales but were not associated with cardiovascular emergency department visits. Peak warm-season thresholds for all CVD mortality occurred at 25.6 °C, corresponding to 20.7 excess deaths per 100 000 (SD 20.3;

conclusionsTemperature thresholds for cardiovascular mortality vary across temporal scales and CVD subtypes, with strongest associations for all CVD and coronary heart disease mortality. Integrating temperature-mortality relationships with community vulnerability profiles may support targeted heat warning systems and neighborhood-specific adaptation strategies.

Indexed as

Cardiovascular DiseasesExtreme HeatHot TemperatureAgedChicagoEmergency Service, HospitalFemaleHumansMalePrincipal Component AnalysisRisk AssessmentRisk FactorsSeasonsTime Factorscardiovascular diseaseextreme heatmachine learningtemperaturevulnerability

Identifiers

PMID41532540
PMCPMC12919482

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.