ArticleBMJ open2026
Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) notifications and trends in the transmission cycles from infants and young children to older adults in Ireland: an analysis of incidence shifts over a decade.
Article in BMJ open, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.
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Who cites it
1 citing paper in PubMed.
- Comparison of the Hospital Burden Associated with Respiratory Syncytial Virus and Human Metapneumovirus Across All Age Groups in Scotland: A Retrospective Analysis.Infectious diseases and therapy · 2026Article
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7 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
objectivesUnderstanding the epidemiological shifts of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is essential to inform public health interventions, particularly given its increased burden on healthcare systems post-COVID-19 pandemic. This study aimed to examine age-specific trends and seasonal variations in RSV incidence, considering the recent introduction of a newborn RSV immunisation programme in Ireland.
designA surveillance time series study analysing routinely collected RSV notification data. SETTINGS: National-level weekly RSV notifications collected by the Health Service Executive-Health Protection Surveillance Centre in Ireland from 2012 to 2024.
participantsInfants (<1 year), young children (1-4 years) and older adults (≥65 years) with laboratory-confirmed RSV, from within the corresponding Irish population. OUTCOME MEASURES: Annual trends in RSV epidemiology with special reference to the pre- and post-COVID-19 winter surges, and the time lag in age-related transmission to peak incidence among the various age groups. Data were analysed to evaluate incidence rates, peak timing, age-related transmission trends and lag times before and after the COVID-19 pandemic.
resultsThe study examined the increasing incidence of RSV post-COVID-19 and a significant shift toward earlier RSV peaks in recent years (2021/2022, 2022/2023 and 2023/2024 seasons) in Ireland, with the onset and peak of the season nearly 2 months earlier than in pre-COVID-19 pandemic seasons (p<0.01). Cross-correlation factor analysis indicated a sequential spread of RSV infections, where a peak in older adults followed an initial rise in cases among infants and young children, within a 3- to 5-week period (maximum cross-correlation=0.86 at lag 4 weeks, p<0.001). Post-pandemic, infants exhibited higher infection rates, with incident rates significantly higher in all seasons post-COVID-19 (p<0.001) and peak intensities increasing by over 60% from 2021/2022 to 2023/2024.
conclusionThis analysis highlights an early seasonal onset and intensified RSV burden among infants in recent winters (2021/2022, 2022/2023 and 2023/2024 seasons). Quantifying the time lag for the community-level RSV transmission from infants and young children to older adults will offer insights to optimise RSV intervention strategies as a 'life-course approach' to alleviate healthcare system pressures during peak seasons.
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