ArticleScientific data2026
Projected hourly and regional energy demand for power heat and transport in New Zealand to 2050.
Article in Scientific data, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Authors and funding
8 authors.
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Abstract
Projections of energy demand are an essential dataset for analysing transition pathways and long-term investment planning. In New Zealand, however, publicly available datasets remain limited in scope and transparency. Existing studies have focused on electricity, while heat and transport have been only partially addressed. This dataset provides projections of final energy demand for New Zealand to 2050, at five-year intervals. Demand is disaggregated by sector (heat, transport, power), energy carrier (e.g., electricity, gas, liquid fuels), and technology (e.g., vehicles, boilers, heat pumps), and resolved to regional and hourly levels. Five exploratory scenarios capture alternative pathways of electrification, substitution of fossil fuels with biofuels and e-fuels, and behavioural change through shifts in transport modes and the adoption of diverse heating technologies across residential, commercial, and industrial applications. Projections were generated using a hybrid top-down/bottom-up approach informed by official statistics, policy targets, demographic and technical indicators. The dataset is designed for integration into energy system modelling and infrastructure planning, and its structure can be adapted for use in other national contexts.
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