Post-fire structural forest recovery associated with climate extremes in dry sub-boreal forests.

Context: Recent large and high-severity wildfires have burned vast areas of coniferous forests throughout Western North America. These burned landscapes are recovering amid increasingly frequent climate extremes, such as drought. We need to understand how post-fire climate extremes and other ecological drivers (such as fire impacts) influence patterns and trends of coniferous recovery. Objectives: We worked at a landscape scale (> 400,000 hectares) to investigate the association between distinct post-fire forest recovery and ecological drivers in dry sub-boreal forests. We created structural recovery groups distinct in patterns and trends of coniferous cover and density and then modeled their association with ecological drivers. Methods: We used Landsat time-series data to identify unique spectral recovery, which we grouped based on post-fire regrowth and stocking estimates. Remotely Piloted Aircraft light detection and ranging (lidar) provided structural estimates 5-21 years post-fire. We modeled the association between structural recovery groups and ecological drivers with random forests. For each category of drivers (site conditions, climate, climate anomalies, pre-fire composition, and fire impacts), we used individual models to identify important drivers. We then incorporated the most important drivers in a global model to highlight the drivers that were important across categories. Results: Initial spectral trends indicated longer-term differences in structural forest recovery. Climate anomalies (such as post-fire extremes in temperature and precipitation) and pre-fire basal area best predicted observed structural groupings-abnormally cold and dry summers after the fire were associated with slow conifer establishment. Comparatively, areas with a higher pre-fire basal area maintained a mixed canopy of deciduous and coniferous stems. Conclusions: At a landscape scale, post-fire climate conditions best predicted structural forest recovery, suggesting management plans should be adaptable to the conditions experienced post fire. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10980-025-02266-y.