ArticleNeuroepidemiology2026
The Burden of Multiple Sclerosis in Japan from 1990 to 2021 and Predictions to 2050 Based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.
Article in Neuroepidemiology, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
introductionGlobal increases in multiple sclerosis (MS) prevalence and incidence have been observed, yet Japan's longitudinal trends and future burden remain understudied.
methodsThis study analyzed MS incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in Japan from 1990 to 2021, and projected burden to 2050 using age-period-cohort modeling and Bayesian meta-regression.
resultsResults showed a 50.2% rise in age-standardized prevalence ratios (from 7.622 to 11.452 per 100,000), mainly driven by a 59.2% increase among females (from 10.853 to 17.282 per 100,000). Projections indicate an increase to 10.12 per 100,000 by 2050, with females remaining disproportionately affected (female-to-male ratio: 2.18:1). Disability accounted for 71.2% of total DALYs in 2021, especially among women aged ≥80 years, who experienced a 446% increase in years lived with disability. Regional disparities persisted, with northern prefectures showing higher prevalence and DALYs. Incidence peaks shifted to older ages, and female incidence remained 1.5-2.0 times higher than males after 2000.
conclusionAlthough Japan remains a low-incidence country, the MS burden is rising due to increasing disability, female predominance, and regional disparities, highlighting the need for targeted screening, resource allocation to high-risk areas, and elderly focused care.
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