Evaluating High Ambient Temperature Effects on Milk Production in Local Tunisian Goats: Toward Resilient Breeding Strategies for Arid Environments.

This study evaluates the impact of high ambient temperature (HT) on milk production in Tunisian local goats using both fixed and random regression models with quadratic and cubic Legendre polynomials. Daily minimum (Tmin), maximum (Tmax), and average (Tavg) temperatures were tested as heat load indicators, measured on the milking day and averaged over the 1-3 preceding days. The deviance information criterion (DIC) consistently showed that models including temperature effects provided a better fit than a baseline model without heat load. Cubic polynomials showed superior accuracy compared with quadratic models, even if the differences were relatively small. The best model was obtained with Tavg on the milking day, followed closely by Tmax averaged across one or two preceding days. The population response showed a thermoneutral plateau at lower temperatures, followed by declines beyond the HT thresholds. For Tmax, moderate and severe thresholds were detected at 20-23 °C and 25-27 °C, respectively, while for Tavg, thresholds occurred at 11-13 °C and 16-19 °C. Milk losses ranged from 22 to 85 g/°C depending on the temperature indicator, representing an average 4-5% decline in daily yield per degree above thermoneutrality. High variability in individual responses was observed. Some goats maintained stable production, while others showed steep declines under HT, with slope differences reaching over 150 g/°C. Correlations of milk yield across contrasting thermal environments were low, indicating that animal ranking changes with temperature. High-producing goats are more affected by heat, showing the need for a balance between production and heat tolerance.