Analyzing the influence of environment, demographic and socio-economic factors on Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae) mosquito density at the micro-level using XGBoost and SHAP.

backgroundEffective mosquito control in urban areas requires understanding of how climatic, ecological and socioeconomic factors shape vector abundance. However, most studies use linear or opaque models that overlook nonlinear relationships between environmental conditions and Aedes albopictus density. These complex associations remain insufficiently characterized in highly urbanized settings, where interacting environmental and human factors jointly influence mosquito habitats.

methodsWe trained a random forest model, an XGBoost model with a default squared-error objective and an XGBoost model with a Poisson count objective using adult Aedes albopictus monitoring data collected across Shanghai from April to November 2023. Model performance was evaluated with RMSE, MAE, R

resultsOn the independent test set, the XGBoost-Poisson model achieved the best overall accuracy (R

conclusionsThe framework identified key environmental and socioeconomic drivers of Aedes albopictus density in Shanghai. Despite moderate temporal generalization, it provides interpretable, fine-scale insights to guide targeted vector control and inform urban mosquito management in dense metropolitan settings. Future research should validate the framework across additional seasons and diverse urban contexts, incorporate finer environmental and infrastructural data and enhance uncertainty quantification for improved interpretive robustness.