Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41514213›Full record

ArticleBMC cardiovascular disorders2026

Trends in mortality and major adverse cardiovascular events following incident acute myocardial infarction.

Steven Scholfield, Salwa S Zghebi, Martin K Rutter, Mamas A Mamas, Evangelos Kontopantelis

Erratum issuedAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in BMC cardiovascular disorders, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors.

Steven ScholfieldDivision of Cardiovascular Sciences, School of Medical Sciences, Faculty of Biology, Medicine and Health, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK. steven.scholfield@postgrad.manchester.ac.uk.
Salwa S ZghebiDivision of Population Health, Health Services Research and Primary Care, School of Health Sciences, Faculty of Biology, Medicine and Health, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK.
Martin K RutterDivision of Diabetes, Endocrinology & Gastroenterology, School of Medical Sciences, Faculty of Biology, Medicine and Health, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK.
Mamas A MamasKeele Cardiovascular Research Group, Centre for Prognosis Research, Institute for Primary Care and Health Sciences, Keele University, Keele, UK.
Evangelos KontopantelisDivision of Informatics, Imaging and Data Sciences, School of Health Sciences, Faculty of Biology, Medicine and Health, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK.

Funding

Heart Research UK RG2682/19/21National Institute for Health and Care Research ACF-2023-06-009
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

BACKGROUND AND

aimsAssessment of mortality trends and real-world outcomes are important for monitoring acute myocardial infarction (AMI) care, although there is limited data beyond 1-year post incident AMI.

methodsWe used Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum to identify patients ≥ 35 with incident AMI between 1 Jan 2006 to 31 Dec 2014. Data was also extracted from three other sources. Risk of all-cause and cardiovascular (CV)-related mortality, incident heart failure (HF), recurrent AMI, and cerebrovascular accidents (CVA) were calculated at 1- and 5-years using regression analysis-2006 was the comparator.

resultsWe identified 94,241 patients with AMI. The 1-year risk for multiple outcomes fell by 2014, including all-cause mortality (hazard ratio (HR): 0.82, 95% CI: 0.75-0.90), CV-related mortality (HR: 0.69, 95% CI: 0.60-0.78), and recurrent AMI (HR 0.72, 95% CI: 0.66-0.79). The 1-year risk for incident HF increased (HR: 1.18, 95% CI: 1.08-1.28) whilst CVA risk did not change (HR: 1.11, 95% CI: 0.98-1.26). At 5-years, the risk fell for all-cause mortality (HR: 0.82, 95% CI: 0.79-0.87), CV-related mortality (HR: 0.68, 95% CI: 0.62-0.74), and recurrent AMI (HR: 0.71, 95% CI: 0.65-0.75) by 2014. The 5-year risk for incident HF increased (HR: 1.15, 95% CI: 1.08-1.23), whilst CVA risk also increased significantly (HR: 1.16, 95% CI: 1.07-1.26) by 2014.

conclusionsAcross 2006-2014, we observed a falling risk of all-cause mortality, CV-related mortality, and recurrent AMI at 1- and 5-years post incident AMI. Countervailing trends were seen for incident HF, where the risk for CVA also increased significantly by 5-years.

Indexed as

Heart FailureMyocardial InfarctionAgedAged, 80 and overCause of DeathDatabases, FactualFemaleHumansIncidenceMaleMiddle AgedPrognosisRecurrenceRisk AssessmentRisk FactorsTime FactorsAcute myocardial infarctionCerebrovascular accidentsHeart failureMortalityTrends

Identifiers

PMID41514213
PMCPMC12882593

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.