Balancing Harvesting and Conservation: Demographic Responses of a Threatened Palm to Anthropogenic Disturbance.

The expansion of human activities into natural ecosystems has driven demographic changes across numerous species. In terrestrial environments, land-use change and the harvesting of forest resources are major drivers of population decline and extinction, particularly among species dependent on continuous forest cover. Despite advances in demographic research, the long-term population responses of many species to these pressures remain poorly understood, especially in landscapes subject to intense deforestation. This study evaluated the dynamics of palm populations not directly harvested but exposed to anthropogenic disturbances, using numerical simulations to assess the demographic effects of varying intensities and frequencies of palm heart and fruit harvesting. Over a 19-year period, Integral Projection Models revealed declining population growth rates, with the survival of large individuals exerting the greatest influence on population trajectories. Simulations indicated that harvesting of palm heart substantially exacerbated population decline, particularly when targeting immature and mature individuals at high intensity and frequency. In contrast, harvesting of fruits, which does not result in direct mortality, had a comparatively lower demographic impact and may be sustainable under specific conditions. These findings highlight the importance of regulating resource extraction and implementing conservation measures, especially in fragmented landscapes, to ensure the persistence of species vulnerable to anthropogenic disturbance. The modeling framework applied here provides a valuable approach for evaluating demographic responses to human activities in other plant species and ecosystems. Furthermore, this type of study is crucial for informing sustainable management policies and for offering valuable insights into balancing resource extraction with conservation needs in fragmented landscapes.