Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41508118›Full record

ArticleInfectious diseases of poverty2026

Schistosomiasis japonica transmission dynamics: mathematical modeling in guiding One Health approach control strategies.

Norvin P Bansilan, Joaquin M Prada, Allen Jethro I Alonte, Martha Elizabeth Betson, Vachel Gay V Paller, Jomar F Rabajante

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Article in Infectious diseases of poverty, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

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4 · The record

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5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Norvin P BansilanInstitute of Mathematical Sciences, University of the Philippines Los Baños, Los Baños, Laguna, Philippines. npbansilan@up.edu.ph.ORCID http://orcid.org/0009-0000-6728-2485
Joaquin M PradaSchool of Veterinary Medicine, University of Surrey, Guildford, UK. j.prada@surrey.ac.uk.
Allen Jethro I AlonteInstitute of Biological Sciences, University of the Philippines Los Baños, Los Baños, Laguna, Philippines.
Martha Elizabeth BetsonSchool of Veterinary Medicine, University of Surrey, Guildford, UK.
Vachel Gay V PallerInstitute of Biological Sciences, University of the Philippines Los Baños, Los Baños, Laguna, Philippines.
Jomar F RabajanteInstitute of Mathematical Sciences, University of the Philippines Los Baños, Los Baños, Laguna, Philippines.

Funding

Department of Science and Technology, Philippines N9A6823Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council EP/T003618/1MRF_ MR/R025592/1
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

purposeSchistosomiasis (SCH) japonica remains a persistent public health concern in the Philippines despite continuing control efforts. This study aims to examine the transmission dynamics of SCH japonica and evaluate different intervention strategies using a One Health modeling approach, with the goal of supporting feasible control and elimination targets.

methodsWe developed a compartmental mathematical model calibrated using field survey data collected in 2022 from eight endemic barangays in Agusan del Sur and Surigao del Norte. The dataset included SCH prevalence, egg excretion levels in humans and animals quantified through Kato-Katz, modified McMaster, and sedimentation techniques, and household distance to potential transmission sites. Multiple intervention strategies were examined, including human and animal chemotherapy, WaSH (water access, sanitation, and hygiene) adoption, pasture prohibition, vegetation clearing, and snail control. Sensitivity analysis using Partial Rank Correlation Coefficients (PRCC) was performed to identify influential transmission drivers.

resultsThe model estimates baseline prevalence at approximately 20% in humans across the study areas. Under medium WaSH adoption, human prevalence is projected to decline to approximately 1.01% by 2030, whereas high WaSH coverage further reduces prevalence to 0.64%. Combining WaSH and pasture prohibition alongside chemotherapy is projected to reduce human prevalence to 0.09% and animal prevalence to 0.10% by 2030. Sensitivity analysis identified snail-to-human transmission rate (PRCC = 0.612) and snail shedding rate (PRCC = 0.607) as the most influential parameters.

conclusionIntegrated strategies focusing on WaSH, reduced animal exposure, and targeted chemotherapy offer the most effective pathway toward achieving World Health Organization's (WHO's) 2030 SCH targets. Implementation should be strengthened through health education, behavioral interventions, mechanization support, and active Local Government Unit (LGU) participation.

Indexed as

One HealthSchistosomiasis japonicaAnimalsCattleHumansModels, TheoreticalPhilippinesPrevalenceSchistosoma japonicumSnailsMacroparasiteMathematical modelingNeglected tropical diseaseOne HealthSchistosomiasis japonica

Identifiers

PMID41508118
PMCPMC12784478

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LicenceCC BY
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.