ArticlePloS one2026
Space-time clustering and temporal trend analysis of pulmonary tuberculosis in Brazil, 2010-2023.
Article in PloS one, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Who cites it
1 citing paper in PubMed.
- Spatiotemporal Patterns and Socioeconomic Determinants of Pulmonary Tuberculosis in Piauí, Northeast Brazil, 2001-2024.Tropical medicine & international health : TM & IH · 2026Article
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Authors and funding
7 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundIdentifying high-risk areas for pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) is essential for understanding the dynamics of disease transmission and for guiding more effective control strategies. Therefore, this study aimed to analyze the temporal trends and spatiotemporal distribution of PTB across Brazilian municipalities between 2010 and 2023.
methodsThis is an ecological study using data on PTB cases reported in Brazil's Notifiable Diseases Information System (SINAN) from 2010 to 2023. Time series analysis, global and local spatial autocorrelation, and space-time scan techniques were applied to identify temporal trends and spatial patterns of the disease at the municipal level.
resultsA total of 896,062 new PTB cases were analyzed. Notification peaked mainly in March and August. The average incidence rate was 30.3 cases per 100,000 inhabitants-years. An increasing trend was observed in 13 states and the Federal District. Spatial analysis identified 804 municipalities as hotspots, with 168 showing persistent high incidence throughout the study period. A total of 28 spatiotemporal clusters were detected, involving 379 municipalities, of which 212 were classified as high priority. The most likely cluster was located in the Rio de Janeiro Metropolitan Region, encompassing 10 municipalities, with a relative risk (RR) of 2.51 between 2017 and 2023. Spatial variation in temporal trends identified 22 additional clusters, including a prominent cluster composed of 493 municipalities in the Legal Amazon, which showed an internal time trend of 1.99% annual growth and a RR of 1.51.
conclusionThe study identified persistent and expanding patterns of PTB in Brazil at both regional and national levels, revealing specific areas with higher burden and increasing trends that should be prioritized. These findings provide evidence to support decision-making at federal level while reinforce the need for regionally tailored surveillance and control strategies to ensure a more effective and equitable response to tuberculosis across the country.
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