ArticleBMC public health2026
Spatiotemporal patterns of excess mortality attributable to prolonged cold spells in China, 2020-2023.
Article in BMC public health, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
0 citing papers in PubMed.
No citing paper in PubMed yet.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundWhile global warming is generally associated with fewer extremely cold days, prolonged cold spells continue to pose important public health concern. However, recent evidence on their spatiotemporal distribution and mortality burden in China is lacking.
methodsWe conducted a nationwide county-level assessment of prolonged cold spells and their attributable mortality across China from 2020 to 2023. Daily meteorological data were retrieved from the NOAA database, and mortality data from 26 representative cities were analyzed using a time-stratified case-crossover design. Cold spells were defined as ≥ 5 consecutive days with mean temperature below the 5th percentile of the local distribution. Excess deaths were estimated by integrating relative risks with county-level population and crude death rates.
resultsDuring the study period, 11,737 cold spell events were identified nationwide, totaling 94,815 days. The frequency and geographic extent of prolonged cold spells showed notable year-to-year variation, with substantial spatial heterogeneity in their impacts. Overall, 41,614 excess deaths were attributable to prolonged cold spells, and the annual mortality burden fluctuated across the four years, reaching the highest level (16,914 deaths) in 2023. Northern provinces exhibited elevated mortality risks, yet southern provinces such as Chongqing, Sichuan and Guangdong also bore substantial burdens due to large exposed populations. Temporally, excess deaths clustered in December and January, consistent with periods of most severe cold spells. Health risks unequally affected vulnerable groups, particularly women and older adults.
conclusionsUnder the background of global warming, prolonged cold spells in China exhibited considerable interannual variability while continuing to impose substantial health burdens nationwide. These findings highlight the need to consider spatiotemporal dynamics in climate change adaptation planning and emphasize regionally tailored public health strategies to mitigate cold related risks.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.