Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41499398›Full record

ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2026

The anticipation of imminent events is time-scale invariant.

Matthias Grabenhorst, David Poeppel, Georgios Michalareas

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. The anticipation of imminent events is time-scale invariant.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026
    Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

3 authors.

Matthias GrabenhorstErnst Strüngmann Institute for Neuroscience in Cooperation with Max Planck Society, Frankfurt 60528, Germany.ORCID 0000-0002-7408-7458
David PoeppelDepartment of Psychology, New York University, New York, NY 10003.
Georgios MichalareasErnst Strüngmann Institute for Neuroscience in Cooperation with Max Planck Society, Frankfurt 60528, Germany.ORCID 0000-0002-8196-3049

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Humans predict the timing of imminent events to generate fast and precise actions, decisions, and other behaviors. Such temporal anticipation is critical over wide timescales, and especially salient over the range from hundreds of milliseconds to a few seconds. Despite advances in our understanding of basic timing behavior and its underlying neural mechanisms, it remains an open question whether anticipation is stable across these short time scales. Recent work shows that the brain models the probability density function (PDF) of events across time, suggesting a canonical mechanism for temporal anticipation. Here, we investigate whether this computation holds when the event distribution covers different time spans. We show that, irrespective of the time span, anticipation, measured as reaction time, scales with the event distribution. This demonstrates that the key computation-the estimation of event probability density-is invariant across temporal scales. We further show that the precision of anticipation is also scale invariant which contradicts Weber's law. The results are established in vision and audition, suggesting that the core computations in temporal anticipation are independent of sensory modality. Perceptual systems exploit probability estimation over time independently of temporal scale to anticipate imminent events.

Indexed as

Anticipation, PsychologicalBrainReaction TimeTime PerceptionHumansProbabilityTime Factorsanticipationpredictionprobability estimationscale invariancetime estimation

Identifiers

PMID41499398
PMCPMC12799109

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.