Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41495019›Full record

ArticleNature communications2026

Behavioral uncertainty in EV charging drives heterogeneous grid load variability under climate goals.

Bin Zhang, Qingyao Xin, Siyuan Chen, Zhaohua Wang, Yang Lu, Niu Niu, Fang Zhang, Guangchuan Liu, Prateek Bansal

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Nature communications, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors.

Bin Zhang *School of Management, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing, China.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-0633-2930
Qingyao Xin *Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore. xinqingyao123@163.com.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5275-8655
Siyuan ChenSchool of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing, China.
Zhaohua WangSchool of Economics, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing, China.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-6673-4037
Yang LuSchool of Management, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing, China.
Niu NiuSchool of Management, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing, China.
Fang ZhangDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore.
Guangchuan LiuSchool of Management, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing, China.
Prateek BansalDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering, National University of Singapore, Singapore, Singapore. prateekb@nus.edu.sg.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-6851-8461

Funding

National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China) 72104021National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China) 72174023National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China) 72222017National Natural Science Foundation of China (National Science Foundation of China) 72574021
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Large-scale deployment of electric vehicles (EVs) to meet climate goals imposes dual pressures on power system reliability: increased electricity demand and intensified daily load variability arising from uncertain charging behavior. This study quantifies the magnitude and spatial distribution of behavior-induced load variability in China under alternative climate scenarios, using a scalable model calibrated with minute-level EV charging data. EV adoption consistent with carbon-neutrality goals is projected to raise electricity demand by 3.2% in 2050, requiring an additional annual investment of approximately 220 billion CNY (about 31 billion USD) in battery storage capacity. Accounting for behavioral uncertainty, potential load fluctuations could increase by up to 82.7%. Regional heterogeneity in charging patterns drives distinct spatial profiles of electricity variability, influencing the effectiveness of demand-side management strategies. These findings highlight the importance of targeted, behaviorally informed interventions to mitigate grid reliability risks under deep EV adoption.

Identifiers

PMID41495019
PMCPMC12774895

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.