Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41489988›Full record

ArticleJMIR aging2026

Development and Validation of Machine Learning Models for Predicting Falls Among Hospitalized Older Adults: Retrospective Cross-Sectional Study.

Xiyao Yang, Juan Ren, Dan Su, Manzhen Bao, Miao Zhang, Xiaoming Chen, Yanhua Li, Zonggui Wang, Xiujing Dai, Zengzeng Wei and 6 more

Abstract readValidation Study
In one paragraph

Article in JMIR aging, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
2citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

2 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

16 authors.

Xiyao Yang *Second Hospital of Anhui Medical University, No.678 Furong Road, Shushan District, Hefei, 230601, China, 86 1-809-650-2125.ORCID http://orcid.org/0009-0001-4295-5396
Juan Ren *Second Hospital of Anhui Medical University, No.678 Furong Road, Shushan District, Hefei, 230601, China, 86 1-809-650-2125.ORCID http://orcid.org/0009-0006-7020-6022
Dan Su *School of Nursing, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China.ORCID http://orcid.org/0009-0000-1537-1873
Manzhen BaoSecond Hospital of Anhui Medical University, No.678 Furong Road, Shushan District, Hefei, 230601, China, 86 1-809-650-2125.ORCID http://orcid.org/0009-0002-1789-5763
Miao ZhangSecond Hospital of Anhui Medical University, No.678 Furong Road, Shushan District, Hefei, 230601, China, 86 1-809-650-2125.ORCID http://orcid.org/0009-0007-6659-3549
Xiaoming ChenSecond Hospital of Anhui Medical University, No.678 Furong Road, Shushan District, Hefei, 230601, China, 86 1-809-650-2125.ORCID http://orcid.org/0009-0003-5409-2481
Yanhua LiSecond Hospital of Anhui Medical University, No.678 Furong Road, Shushan District, Hefei, 230601, China, 86 1-809-650-2125.ORCID http://orcid.org/0009-0009-4037-115X
Zonggui WangSecond Hospital of Anhui Medical University, No.678 Furong Road, Shushan District, Hefei, 230601, China, 86 1-809-650-2125.ORCID http://orcid.org/0009-0008-8064-7715
Xiujing DaiSecond Hospital of Anhui Medical University, No.678 Furong Road, Shushan District, Hefei, 230601, China, 86 1-809-650-2125.ORCID http://orcid.org/0009-0003-7161-8342
Zengzeng WeiSecond Hospital of Anhui Medical University, No.678 Furong Road, Shushan District, Hefei, 230601, China, 86 1-809-650-2125.ORCID http://orcid.org/0009-0003-8363-3224
Shuiyu ZhangSchool of Nursing, Anhui Medical University, Hefei, China.ORCID http://orcid.org/0009-0000-3828-916X
Yuxin ZhangSecond Hospital of Anhui Medical University, No.678 Furong Road, Shushan District, Hefei, 230601, China, 86 1-809-650-2125.ORCID http://orcid.org/0009-0005-5307-5166
Juan LiSecond Hospital of Anhui Medical University, No.678 Furong Road, Shushan District, Hefei, 230601, China, 86 1-809-650-2125.ORCID http://orcid.org/0009-0001-8062-7369
Xiaolin LiSecond Hospital of Anhui Medical University, No.678 Furong Road, Shushan District, Hefei, 230601, China, 86 1-809-650-2125.ORCID http://orcid.org/0009-0000-1248-2076
Junjin XuSecond Hospital of Anhui Medical University, No.678 Furong Road, Shushan District, Hefei, 230601, China, 86 1-809-650-2125.ORCID http://orcid.org/0009-0002-7192-9389
Nan MoSecond Hospital of Anhui Medical University, No.678 Furong Road, Shushan District, Hefei, 230601, China, 86 1-809-650-2125.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5024-7253

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Background: Falls are one of the leading causes of injury or death among older adults. Falls occurring in individuals during hospitalization, as an adverse event, are a key concern for health care institutions. Identifying older adults at high risk of falls in clinical settings enables early interventions, thereby reducing the incidence of falls. Objective: This study aims to develop and validate machine learning models to predict the risk of falls among hospitalized older adults. Methods: This study retrospectively analyzed data from a tertiary general hospital in China, including 342 older adults who experienced falls and 684 randomly matched nonfallers, between January 2018 and December 2024, encompassing demographic information, comorbidities, laboratory parameters, and medication use, among other variables. The dataset was randomly split into training and testing sets in a 7:3 ratio. Predictors were selected from the training set using stepwise regression, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator, and random forest-recursive feature elimination. Seven machine learning algorithms were employed to develop predictive models in the training set, and their performance was compared in the testing set. The optimal model was interpreted using Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP). Results: The gradient boosting machine model demonstrated the best predictive performance (C-index 0.744, 95% CI 0.688-0.799). The 8 most important variables associated with fall risk were dizziness, epilepsy, fall history within the past 3 months, use of walking assistance, emergency admission, Morse Fall Scale scores, modified Barthel Index scores, and the number of indwelling catheters. The model was interpreted using SHAP to enhance the clinical utility of the predictive model. Conclusions: The gradient boosting machine model was identified as the optimal predictive model. The SHAP method enhanced its integration into clinical workflows.

Indexed as

Accidental FallsHospitalizationMachine LearningAgedAged, 80 and overChinaCross-Sectional StudiesFemaleHumansMaleRetrospective StudiesRisk AssessmentRisk Factorsfall predictiongradient boosting machinemachine learningolder adultsrandom forestrisk prediction

Identifiers

PMID41489988
PMCPMC12767673

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.