Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41488387›Full record

ArticleAnnals of statistics2025

COUNTERFACTUAL INFERENCE IN SEQUENTIAL EXPERIMENTS.

Raaz Dwivedi, Katherine Tian, Sabina Tomkins, Predrag Klasnja, Susan Murphy, Devavrat Shah

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Annals of statistics, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
2citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

2 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Raaz DwivediDepartment of Operations Research and Information Engineering, Cornell Tech.
Katherine TianDepartment of Statistics, Harvard University.
Sabina TomkinsSchool of Information, University of Michigan.
Predrag KlasnjaSchool of Information, University of Michigan.
Susan MurphyDepartment of Statistics, Harvard University.
Devavrat ShahDepartment of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Funding

Pilot and Mentoring CoreP50DA054039 · NIDA · UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN AT ANN ARBOR · PI LINDA M COLLINS, SUSAN A MURPHY · 2021 to 2026
$18.2M
TR&D3 - Rapid Translation of AI-powered Temporally Precise mHealth Interventions via Efficient and Embeddable Trustworthy Biomarker ImplementationsP41EB028242 · NIBIB · UNIVERSITY OF MEMPHIS · PI Santosh Kumar · 2020 to 2026
$9.5M
Personalized Digital Behavior Change Interventions to Promote Oral HealthUH3DE028723 · NIDCR · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA LOS ANGELES · PI VIVEK SHETTY · 2022 to 2026
$3.8M
Heart Steps: Adaptive mHealth intervention for physical-activity maintenanceR01HL125440 · NHLBI · UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN AT ANN ARBOR · PI Predrag Klasnja · 2015 to 2026
$3.8M
Operationalizing Behavioral Theory for mHealth: Dynamics, Context, and PersonalizationU01CA229445 · NCI · UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA · PI KLASNJA, PREDRAG, MARLIN, BENJAMIN M. · 2018 to 2022
$2.1M
NCI NIH HHS U01 CA229445NHLBI NIH HHS R01 HL125440NIBIB NIH HHS P41 EB028242NIDA NIH HHS P50 DA054039NIDCR NIH HHS UH3 DE028723
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

We consider after-study statistical inference for sequentially designed experiments wherein multiple units are assigned treatments for multiple time points using treatment policies that adapt over time. Our goal is to provide inference guarantees for the counterfactual mean at the smallest possible scale-mean outcome under different treatments

Indexed as

62K0562L05adaptive randomizationcounterfactual inferencemixed effects modelnearest neighborsnon-linear factor modelPrimary 62L10secondary 62G20Sequential experiments

Identifiers

PMID41488387
PMCPMC12758907

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceTDM
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.