Evidence map›Paper›PMID 41481730›Full record

ArticleScience advances2026

Multi-ignition fire complexes drive extreme fire years and impacts.

Rebecca C Scholten, Tirtha Banerjee, Yang Chen, Andrea Delgado, Ajinkya Desai, Ziming Ke, Tianjia Liu, Douglas C Morton, David A Peterson, Qi Tang and 3 more

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Science advances, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

13 authors.

Rebecca C ScholtenDepartment of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-0144-0572
Tirtha BanerjeeDepartment of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-5153-9474
Yang ChenDepartment of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-0993-7081
Andrea DelgadoDepartment of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697, USA.ORCID 0009-0005-0659-9258
Ajinkya DesaiDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Irvine 92697, CA, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-5642-4193
Ziming KeLawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA 94550, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-9966-9673
Tianjia LiuDepartment of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-3129-0154
Douglas C MortonNASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-2226-1124
David A PetersonUS Naval Research Laboratory, Monterey, CA 93943, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-9027-3779
Qi TangLawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA 94550, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-2959-0203
Sander VeraverbekeFaculty of Sciences, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands.ORCID 0000-0003-1362-5125
Jishi ZhangLawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA 94550, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-2356-5074
James T RandersonDepartment of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697, USA.ORCID 0000-0001-6559-7387

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Climate change is intensifying fire behavior, with the largest and fastest-spreading fires causing the greatest impacts on people and ecosystems. Yet the mechanisms driving variability and trends in large fires remain poorly understood. Using 12-hour satellite-derived fire tracking data from 2012 to 2023, we show that the merging of separate ignitions into multi-ignition complexes is a key process amplifying fire size and destructive potential across temperate and boreal ecoregions. Multi-ignition fires account for 31% of the burned area in California and 59% in the Arctic-boreal domain, spread faster and persist longer than single-ignition fires, and disproportionately contribute to extreme fire years in California, Canada, and Siberia. They also generate stronger atmospheric feedbacks, produce more pyrocumulonimbus events, and strain firefighting capacity by dispersing suppression resources. Recognizing and accounting for fire-merging dynamics are critical for improving wildfire prediction, risk assessment, and management.

Identifiers

PMID41481730
PMCPMC12758541

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.