ArticleBMC musculoskeletal disorders2025
Development of a prediction model for recurrent vertebral fractures in patients two years after vertebral augmentation using noninvasive data: a retrospective study.
Article in BMC musculoskeletal disorders, 2025. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
objectivesBy utilizing noninvasive data to analyze the risk factors for recurrent vertebral fractures in patients two years after vertebral augmentation and establishing a predictive model, the aim is to enhance the management of fragility fractures and reduce the incidence of postoperative recurrent fractures.
methodsA total of 331 patients with osteoporotic fractures admitted to our hospital between January 2023 and December 2024 were selected as research subjects. The patients were divided into a refracture group (n = 85) and a non-fracture group (n = 246). The risk factors for osteoporotic fractures were analyzed using univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression, and a prediction model was established based on the identified risk factors.
resultsAmong 331 patients diagnosed with osteoporotic vertebral fractures, 85 experienced new fractures, accounting for 25.68% of all fractures. Multivariate logistic regression analysis indicated that smoking, alcohol consumption, falls, anti-osteoporosis treatment, and muscle fat infiltration were significant risk factors for postoperative refracture (P < 0.05). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for the combined predictors was 0.947 [0.92, 0.975]. The Hosmer–Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test applied to the model yielded a chi-square value of 9.532, with a p-value of 0.299 (P > 0.05).
conclusionsSmoking, alcohol consumption, falls, anti-osteoporosis treatment, and muscle fat infiltration are risk factors for recurrent vertebral fractures in patients within 2 years after vertebral augmentation. The construction of a prediction model can effectively predict the probability of postoperative recurrence of osteoporotic vertebral fractures and provide a reference for medical staff to identify high-risk patients with osteoporotic fractures and formulate effective intervention measures as soon as possible. CLINICAL TRIAL NUMBER: not applicable.
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